189
FXUS62 KJAX 211111
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
611 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND DAYTIME
MIXING DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY GET INTO THE LOW 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND LOW TO MID
60S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SEE SOME
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
POTENTIAL INLAND FROST EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND.
FRIDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PARTS OF SE GA TO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL UNDER CONTINUED GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AS
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ELEVATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES
AND A RE-ENFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE AS
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MAINLY INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THESE 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR NE FL
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST 30S SINCE MARCH OF 2024 (JAX
AND GNV BOTH HAD LOWS IN THE 30S ON 3/20/2024). WITH INLAND WINDS
IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN ELEVATED SATURDAY
MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, FROST FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND ONLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. SATURDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 60S WITH LESS WIND AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
RIDGE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
NEAR CALM WIND, CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE, LEANED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 20-30% OF A BRIEF INLAND FREEZE FOR OUR
NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCALES SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDING FOLKSTON
TO TAYLOR. SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK WILL ALSO BE THE BETTER
TIME PERIOD FOR POSSIBLY FROST FORMATION AND CONTINUED TO
INDICATED 'PATCHY' FROST AT THIS TIME IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED DRY WITH A WARMING TREND ENSUING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY, WARMER WSW WINDS DEVELOP AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH A RIDGE AXIS REMAINING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS,
WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANTICIPATE DAILY SEA
BREEZES MON/TUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND INCREASE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER SSE AS A
FRONTAL ZONE ATTEMPTS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LIKELY KEEPING RAINFALL STILL NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK GIVEN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH ONLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
IN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WIND GUSTS
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET TO SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AT SSI AND CRG AROUND 07-09Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-10 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL AREA
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MORNING, GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE WILL DROP OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENT AT SE GA BEACHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NE FL BEACHES HAVING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
THROUGH FRIDAY DROPPING TO LOW RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
COLDER AND DRIER UNDER GUSTY WNW WINDS TODAY TRAILING A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE 25-30% RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN.
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO 30-40% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER CONTINUED GUSTY NW WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SE GA WHERE MINIMUM RH MAY
NEAR 25%. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED 1 HR FUEL MOISTURE AND A LOW FIRE
DANGER INDEX LIMIT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. PATCHY INLAND
FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS - WITH SUNDAY
MORNING BEING THE BETTER MORNING FOR FROST POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 38 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 62 45 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 64 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 64 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 64 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 65 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page