505
FXUS62 KJAX 151051
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
MARINE AND SURF ZONE HAZARDS CONTINUE UNDER BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
AND PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH
AXIS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIND STRENGTH DECREASE INTO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE LOCAL COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO NEAR 80
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ABOVE NORMAL, MILD LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE NE FL
COAST. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND FOG TONIGHT
WITH WEAKER WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER, AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO
THE FORECAST. LOCALLY DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY < 1/4 MILE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS THE PARENT HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US MOVES FURTHER OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH JUST A RATHER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD OUR AREA, AND THEREFORE THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE TO OUR NORTH
BY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN HIGH PRESSURE A BIT FURTHER,
LEAVING A PRETTY WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUT ALSO A LINGERING COASTAL
TROUGH FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THE "CLIFFNOTES"
FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE
FOR THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE AREAS
FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR LOFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GA TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE AGREEING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY, TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY FRONTAL/PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE BEFORE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY THE
EXTENT STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, IF ANY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA
AND THEREFORE FAIR CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK. A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SECONDARY DRY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS A SECONDARY "SHOT" OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION, POSSIBLY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
STAY TUNED...
SUMMARIZING ABOVE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TRENDING TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NIGHTLY FREEZES
LOOKING MORE PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST INLAND SE GA AND POSSIBLY PARTS
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
ENE WINDS CONTINUE WITH LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING
IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS, WITH GNV, CRG AND SGJ MORE ON THE MVFR
'FRINGE' AT TIMES. WAVES OF DRIZZLE AND COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL NEAR 18 KTS
JUST INLAND TO 20-22 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE 14-17Z WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER BKN 4-6 KFT INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED
BREEZY ENE WINDS, WITH PEAK MAGNITUDES TRENDING DOWNWARD COMPARED
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH A RESURGENCE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHILE
INLAND LOW STRATUS AND GROUND FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT MORE FOG WITH LESS
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND TRENDED SSI,
GNV, JAX AND VQQ TOWARD MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIND STRENGTH
DECREASES TODAY, PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
SURF ADVISORY: LARGE BREAKERS OF 7-9 FT ARE EXPECTED AT LOCAL
BEACHES TODAY. PEAK BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
MONDAY INTO THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE (ISSUED WHEN BREAKERS ARE 7 FT OR GREATER) THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
YESTERDAY MORNING'S COASTAL HIGH TIDE REACHED "ACTION" STAGE WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING "MINOR" FLOOD STAGE. THE PEAK OF THE
TIDAL FLOODING EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
BETWEEN 730-830 AM LOCAL TIME DUE TO TODAY'S "COLD" FULL MOON AND
PERSISTENT, MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE "MINOR" FLOOD STAGE THRESHOLD TODAY WITH
INUNDATION BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT MHHW DATUM, WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE REPRESENTING PEAK SURGE WELL AT BOTH
FERNANDINA BEACH AND MAYPORT. EXPECT MAINLY MINOR, NUISANCE TIDAL
FLOODING IN THE 'USUAL' LOCATIONS. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 50 74 54 / 10 0 10 0
SSI 69 56 68 57 / 40 10 10 10
JAX 74 55 76 57 / 30 10 10 0
SGJ 74 59 74 61 / 30 10 20 10
GNV 77 53 78 58 / 10 0 10 0
OCF 78 56 81 60 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ124-
125-133-138.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-133-138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ154-
166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page