787
FXUS62 KJAX 160602
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
102 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
CLOUD COVER FORECAST IS LITTLE BIT OF CHALLENGE. BASED ON
SIMULATED SATELLITE AND THE HREF THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
HIGHER CEILINGS AND SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLIER THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF A HYBRID OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING IN
THE NNE FLOW FROM COASTAL SE GA INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
FL PARTICULARLY BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75 PER THE SREF. THIS TREND
IS COVERED VERY WELL BY THE ONGOING FORECAST AS WE SEE SOME DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS IN SLIGHTLY. THIS DRIER AIR AND THE MOISTENED LOW
LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO FORM WHICH IS EVIDENT PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COAST AREAS OF NE FL AND SE GA EXTENDING
INTO WESTERN CLAY COUNTY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A FEW LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER OUTGOING
RADIATION.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MOST OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVITY
OVER INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE FORCING AND SMALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY VERY WELL. SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE LATE AFTN, WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
SOME WEAK LIFT. OVERNIGHT, WE SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN SLIGHTLY. THIS DRIER AIR AND THE MOISTENED
LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE TREND IN THIS PATTERN FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW LOWER 60S WHERE
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE NORTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO
BRING IN MOISTURE TOWARDS THE COAST, ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THOUGH 'HIGHER'
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONTAINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE JAX
METRO AREA ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRANSITION TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE
'WARM' TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES JUST HITTING THE
LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 60S FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-10. WITH LOW WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE FELT AROUND MIDWEEK
AS A COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES,
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF COASTAL NE FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THERE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. BY
THURSDAY, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS A DRY COLD AIRMASS TO THE REGION,
DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY
FRIDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD AIR TO
THE REGION, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LIFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS BASES LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AREAS OF FOG
UNDER NNE WINDS 3-7 KTS. BOTH CRG AND SGJ WILL BE MORE ON THE 'FRINGE' OF THE LOWER STRATUS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SHOULD LOWER AS STRATUS ENCROACHES FORM THE NNE.
AFTER SUNRISE, LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH 14-16Z DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE WITH GRADUAL LIFT INTO AN IFR THEN MVFR DECK THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NBM, SREF AND HRRR ALL INDICATE LINGERING SEA
FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING SSI THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR BRIEFING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RESTRICTIONS
SETTLE BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. OTHER TERMINALS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ENE WINDS
8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BETWEEN 03-06Z AND A RETURN OF IFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
CURRENT FORECAST OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY HEADLINES, WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ON TRACK WITH SEAS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
EASING THROUGH WED. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
LATE WED, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SETUP STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS THU INTO FRI WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVY RETURNING TO AREA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LEAST TUESDAY. SURF CONDITIONS SHOW UP UP TO 5-8 FT LOCALLY, WITH SOME
BEACH EROSION LIKELY CONTINUING DUE TO THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 54 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 57 70 58 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 74 57 75 59 / 10 0 20 10
SGJ 74 61 75 61 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 78 59 79 60 / 0 0 20 0
OCF 79 61 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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