532
FXUS62 KJAX 161035
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING, EXCEPT ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF MAYPORT WHERE
STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND AIR TEMPS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL. AT
3 AM, VISIBILITY STILL RANGE JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA AND
EXTENDED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LOW VISIBILITY THROUGH
6 AM. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE WEAKER WINDS WILL LET LOW STRATUS SETTLE
CLOSER TO THE GROUND.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
COASTAL SHOWERS MAINLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
NEXT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NE FL ATLANTIC COAST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SE GA WHICH KEEPS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND A MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, SPREADING
FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TO NEAR 80 TOWARD OCALA, WHILE LINGERING COASTAL STRATUS
ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND PORTIONS OF NE FL KEEP COOLER HIGHS
NEAR 70. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60
COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AS IT LOSES SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AS A
RESULT, HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY,
THOUGH COASTAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AS TEMPS RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S WEST OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER FOR MOST OF TUESDAY UNDER A WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
AS UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THE COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AND
LIFTS OFF THE THE NORTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ACCORDINGLY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE REGION IN THE
"WARM SECTOR" THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT BEING SAID, UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
RATHER "MESSY" AND DECOUPLED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT FROM THE BEST
SOURCE OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY, AS THIS IS NOT REALLY A
TRADITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCENARIO. TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FROPA
ALSO LOOKS TO BE AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST 30-50% CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS
IN PLACE, WITH POTENTIAL QUICKLY CUTTING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTRUDES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DESPITE A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THEREFORE LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW
60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
GRADUAL COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH DIGS AND SETTLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US, WHICH WILL PIVOT MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, INCLUDING ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE FOR THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE WINTER THUS FAR WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR INLAND FROST
AND FREEZES. TEMPERATURES START NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THURSDAY, TRENDING INCREASINGLY DOWNWARD TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LIFR STRATUS BLANKETED THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH BASES
200-300 FT AGL UNDER NNE WINDS 3-8 KTS. VISIBILITY RANGED FROM
1/4 SM TO 2 SM UNDER THE FOG BANK. SGJ WAS MORE ON FRINGE OF IFR
STRATUS SPEWING SOUTHWARD JUST INLAND, BUT SATELLITE DOES SHOW THE
COASTAL STRATUS EDGE SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH SO UPDATED WITH
BKN003 AROUND 11Z FOR A FEW HOURS.
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH 14-16Z DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE WITH
GRADUAL LIFT INTO AN IFR THEN MVFR DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NBM, SREF
AND HRRR CONTINUED TO INDICATE LINGERING SEA FOG/STRATUS JUST
OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IMPACT SSI, CRG AND SGJ,
BUT AT THIS TIME CONTINUED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HINTING AT
MVFR POTENTIAL WITH A SCT025 LAYER BASED ON NBM AND LAV TRENDS.
OTHER INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PREVAILING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER ENE WINDS 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT,
FILTERING INLAND FROM THE COAST AFTER SUNSET OVERSPREAD COASTAL
TERMINALS BY 06Z THEN FARTHER INLAND TOWARD JAX, VQQ AND GNV
THROUGH 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SEA FOG WILL LINGER NEAR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR ALL LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 10-12 SECONDS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY: BREAKERS OF 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
LOCAL COAST TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS DECREASING INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE
ON TUESDAY. MARGINAL FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TUESDAY FOR ST.
JOHNS & FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 68 56 70 58 / 10 0 10 20
JAX 72 58 76 60 / 10 0 10 10
SGJ 73 60 75 62 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 77 60 79 60 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 79 61 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-033-035-120-124-125-132-136-137-220-225-232-236-
237-322-325-422-425-522.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ151>154-
162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ450-452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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