616
FXUS62 KJAX 170002
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
702 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1037 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME
REGION. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE
WATERS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
ALOFT...RIDGING WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE
BAHAMAS, WHILE A TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. A FEW SPRINKLES WERE
OCCASIONALLY REACH COASTAL ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES, WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTING STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWER STRATUS CEILINGS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS AT 20Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL TEND TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
FL PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME
REGION WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD,
ALLOWING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN OVERNIGHT. DENSE
SEA FOG OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH THIS BANK OF DENSE FOG THEN MIGRATING INLAND OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF COASTAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, RANGING TO THE LOW AND MID
60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. A LOOSENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE IN MID DECEMBER MAY KEEP
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH REMAINS. THE PERSISTING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS
THERE MAY JUST BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO SUPPORT SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, SPREADING IN FROM THE COAST AND SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA. THE
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS THAN JUST THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE MID 70S, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH HIGH
INTO THE LOW 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD ONCE AGAIN AS LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WARMER LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY
THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD AIR. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON, INLAND FREEZES AND FROST
HAZARDS POTENTIAL MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALREADY ONGOING FOR SGJ, CRG, AND VQQ AND
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME WHEN JAX, GNV, AND SSI DETERIORATE TO IFR
AND LOWER FOR LATER TONIGHT. ALSO, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COASTAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ON AND
OFF FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH BY 06Z-12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY, PROBABLY MORE SCATTERED
NEAR SGJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIG AND VSBY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY MORNING, AND FINALLY HAVE MOST OF THE TAFS
IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR CIGS IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
LOW CIGS COULD LINGER FOR THE COASTAL TAFS DEPENDING ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WEAKENS ENOUGH. MAINLY THINKING THAT CRG AND SSI COULD
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS (I.E., IFR) LINGERING AFTER 20Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
DENSE SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD, WITH SEA FOG THEN OVERSPREADING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIME REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT,
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO CAUTION LEVELS NEAR SHORE ON TUESDAY.
A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL THEN SHARPEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY ON THURSDAY,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS AND A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE AT ALL
AREA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH BY
MIDWEEK, BUT A LINGERING OCEAN SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP A MODERATE
RISK IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 76 60 76 / 10 10 10 40
SSI 59 70 59 72 / 20 30 20 50
JAX 60 75 60 78 / 20 30 20 50
SGJ 62 74 63 77 / 30 50 30 60
GNV 61 78 62 79 / 20 30 10 50
OCF 62 81 63 81 / 20 40 20 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ472-474.
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