390
FXUS62 KJAX 171925
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AS SE STEERING FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES
AND WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER
INLAND AREAS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, PATCHY SEA FOG JUST OFF
THE LAND BASED AREAS WILL START TO PULL INLAND INTO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK
AND EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ADVECTIVE SEA
FOG ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL GET PUSHED INLAND IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE ARE LIKELY TO START ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD THROUGH JAX/BRUNSWICK
BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND PUSH ACROSS ALL OF INLAND SE GA AND
MOST OF INLAND NE FL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MOST OF THE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD TOWARDS INLAND
LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HAIL FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
BOARD, WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE 80S ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
BY THE EVENING, THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL SEE SHOWER CHANCES
DWINDLE AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
IN THE LOWER 60S. FOG WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, SPREADING FROM THE COAST TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY, A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA,
WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A COOLING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM
JACKSONVILLE AND SOUTH TOWARDS PALM COAST, BUT ONLY AROUND THE 20%
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE WAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, AS
A BURST OF MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10 WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE 40S.
FROST FORMATION AND FREEZES WILL BE LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS IN SE GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM A BIT BY MONDAY, AS WARMER MARINE
AIR MOVES ONSHORE AS A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER LOCAL
WATERS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT GNV/SGJ, WHILE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
19-20Z AT CRG/JAX/VQQ TO SCATTER OUT THE LOW STRATUS. MEANWHILE
SSI IS STILL LOCKED DOWN WITH LOW STRATUS AT IFR LEVELS AND WILL
RETURN DOWN TO LIFR IN SEA FOG BY SUNSET (23Z) AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE NE FL TERMINALS THE VFR CONDS WILL NOT LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET
AS ADVECTIVE SEA FOG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY WITH LIFR CONDS
DEVELOPING IN THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME AT CRG/SGJ/JAX/VQQ AND
REACHING INLAND TO THE GNV TERMINAL IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME.
THESE LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z DUE TO
THE LOW DECEMBER SUN ANGLE NOT PROVIDING ANY IMPROVEMENT RIGHT AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME WHICH CAN LIKELY
BE TIMED OUT MORE CLOSELY IN LATER TAF PACKAGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE SE GA/NE FL COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CANCELED THE MARINE DENSE SEA FOG ADVISORY,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS MORE
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPS, MAINLY FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COOLER NEARSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM
JAX TO BRUNSWICK TO PRODUCE SEA FOG AT TIMES WITH VSBYS LESS THAN
1 NM, AND WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO BOATERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DESPITE THE LINGERING ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS OF 5-7 FT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL MERGE WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY, THEN
INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIPS WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 4-6 FT TODAY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURF/BREAKERS REMAINING
ELEVATED IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT/ONSHORE. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BECOME LOW TO MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS FLOW BECOME OFFSHORE AND SURF/BREAKERS CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 76 57 71 / 20 30 30 10
SSI 60 72 58 68 / 20 40 40 10
JAX 60 78 59 72 / 20 40 30 20
SGJ 63 77 61 72 / 20 50 40 20
GNV 62 79 60 75 / 20 40 30 20
OCF 63 81 61 77 / 20 40 30 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ472-474.
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