817
FXUS62 KJAX 180831
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSER FOG
AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE OCCURRING. ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL AND TOWARDS THE COASTS, VISIBILITY/FOG HAS BEEN A BIT
MORE "IN AND OUT", THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
DENSE TOWARDS SUNRISE AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE, OPTED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA FOR AN UPDATE
TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED, GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
FREQUENT ENOUGH DENSE ACTIVITY. THOUGH SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN GENERAL LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF REMAINING FULLY "SOCKED IN" THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
PRETTY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST UNTIL ABOUT 9-10AM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREA WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD AS A PSEUDO WARM
FRONT, WITH THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTING TOWARDS INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
VEERING FLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SERVE AS NOT ONLY A MEANS
TO INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, BUT ALSO ACT AS A SEA BREEZE
OF SORTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 ONCE FOG DISSIPATES. WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KT
RANGE, CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEEP AND 500MB
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO, AND THEREFORE SMALL HAIL LOOKS TO BE
THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD IN ADDITION TO SOME STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE. THE MAIN THING LIMITING SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY IS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
LAGGING BEHIND/WEST OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WITH
THAT SAID, DESPITE MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION STARTING TO WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER DUSK, A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTION. COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE GRADUAL DUE TO THE DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE
FRONTAL DYNAMICS, AND THEREFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THU & THU NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THURSDAY UNDER LOW LEVEL NNW WINDS. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WSW
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY 'WARM' AIRMASS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
OF A PASSING SHOWER OR T'STORM ACROSS NE FL WITH THE APPROACH &
PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY OF 800-1000 J/KG UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LIFT/SHEAR FAVOR T'STORM POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST.
AUGUSTINE TO OCALA LINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT INVADING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPER DEEPER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH BUT COULD ENHANCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES COOL THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SE GA TO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL, BUT NOT A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN YET.
FRI & FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COOLING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY
TRAILING THE THU EVENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FL. FRI AFTERNOON, A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA, TRAILED BY COLDER AND DRIER DEEP-LAYER
WNW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING AND JUST LIGHT ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME PATCHY INLAND FROST TO FORM IN
SHELTERED AREAS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES (AKA WIND CHILLS) NEAR
30 DEGF FOR PARTS OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SAT MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SAT & SUN...DRY WITH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH INLAND LIGHT FREEZES FOR SE GA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FROST FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
MON & TUE...NNE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ANOTHER INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH AXIS FORMING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AND MUCH OF NE FL, WHILE A RIDGE
AXIS WEDGING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS HOLDS ONTO
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING FOR INLAND SE GA. THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL ONSHORE FLOW LATE MON INTO TUE WITH A CHANCE
OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND A RETURN OF SURF ZONE AND MARINE HAZARDS
INCLUDING ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WIDESPREAD FG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST (SUCH AS SSI).
STILL EXPECTING ALL SITES THAT HAVE NOT REACHED LIFR VSBY ALREADY
TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH
ABOUT 14 TO 15Z. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR SOME TERMINALS TO GO "IN
AND OUT" OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT
SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ, ESPECIALLY IF A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR NEAR THE COAST.
RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL
AIRFIELDS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE REFINED IN TEMPO GROUPS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TSRA POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY, AND LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST. FG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY AGAIN AREA WIDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
AREAS OF FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT GENERALLY AWAY FROM WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE
DAYTIME CONVECTION INLAND TODAY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY ON THURSDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 57 73 51 / 30 20 0 10
SSI 72 58 70 55 / 40 30 10 10
JAX 79 59 74 54 / 40 30 10 10
SGJ 77 61 73 56 / 40 30 20 0
GNV 80 60 76 54 / 40 30 20 10
OCF 82 61 78 56 / 30 30 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-
225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-452.
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