145
FXUS62 KJAX 190818
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
318 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NE FL, COASTAL SE GA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC MARINE WATERS THROUGH 10 AM...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FOG, OVER BOTH LAND AND SEA, WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WAS EDGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE GA EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK, OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WHERE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZES COINCIDES UNDER A STRONG PASSING
LONG WAVE TROUGH. INVADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRAILING THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST WHERE MARINE
STRATUS AND SEA FOG WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL THIS EVENING, STRATUS AND SEA FOG WILL MIGRATE INLAND WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 301. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES
TONIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL WNW FLOW AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 50S TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND NE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHERE FOG AND STRATUS ARE
MOST PROBABLE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
LIGHT COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. ADVECTION WILL SPEED UP
MODESTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA, SHIFTING OUR
WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH. TEMPS, DEW POINTS, AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALL TREND DOWNWARD RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE COMMON OVER
THE INTERIOR UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY AREAS
OF FROST DUE TO AN ADVECTION BREEZE IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
A COOL AND DRY DAY WILL BE EXPECTED SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
YOU WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S COMMON. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE JUST AS COLD IF NOT COLDER LOW TEMPS, WITH UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 30S BY THE COAST AND
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR A FREEZE AND PATCHY HARD FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL START TO SHIFT THE ORIENTATION OF
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE OUR FLOW
DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, STARTING TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL THEREFORE RETURN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY LIFT THE COASTAL TROUGH
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL COLD FRONT
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPS START BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY, QUICKLY
MODERATING TOWARDS NEAR AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS FROM THE SW AHEAD BRINGING TEMPO PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR. LIGHT WNW WINDS < 6 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR 13-15Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER NEAR SSI AND
SGJ ALONG THE COAST WHERE RECENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS
AND SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER WITH
PERIODS OF SCT- BKN BASES 2-3 KFT AFTER 18Z.
AFTER 00Z, NNE TO NNW WINDS DEVELOP WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
EXPANDING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT SSI AND SGJ FIRST
BY 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY, THEN NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
TRAILING A MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL
LOCAL BEACHES UNDER WNW TO NNW WINDS, WITH A SLIGHT NNE COMPONENT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE LOCAL COAST. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED
FRIDAY UNDER WNW OFFSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 47 65 33 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 70 53 65 38 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 75 53 69 37 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 73 56 71 41 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 77 53 69 35 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 78 54 72 38 / 20 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
030-031-033-035-038-125-132-133-136>138-140-225-232-236-237-
240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
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