050
FXUS62 KJAX 191733
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..DENSE FOG LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
..BECOMING BREEZY AND TURNING COOLER ON FRIDAY
..LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED WELL INLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE (1030
MILLIBARS) BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
(1038 MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN THE WAKE
OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A SHARPENING TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LAST VESTIGES OF A BANK OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THAT PLAGUED MUCH OF OUR AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING NOW ERODING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER TO THE NORTH OF
JACKSONVILLE, WHILE A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AT THE NOON HOUR, WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE UPPER 70S WERE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. DEWPOINTS AT 17Z
RANGED FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID 60S
IN NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
AN ISOLATED, BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, LEFTOVER LOW STRATUS LINGERING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER
WILL ERODE COMPLETELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE.
THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. A LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH FOG THEN SPREADING INLAND ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS REACHING THE U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LATEST SHORT-TERM, HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS BANK OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TOWARDS SUNRISE AS OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING REINFORCING
FRONT. FAIR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S.-301
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHILE LOWS ELSEWHERE REMAIN
IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10Z EXCEPT AT GNV WHICH BOUNCED TO VFR WITH PASSING LOW
AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON SURROUNDING
OBS BELIEVE THIS IS TEMPORARY AND STILL EXPECT PREVAILING LIFR TO
IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 13-16Z AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WNW WINDS < 6 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14-16Z. THERE IS ABOUT A 10-14% CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CEILINGS IMPROVING TO IFR THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS. LOW
STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER NEAR SSI AND SGJ ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEA FOG WILL MEANDER. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER WITH
PERIODS OF SCT-BKN BASES 2-3 KFT AFTER 18Z.
AFTER 00Z, NNE ADVECT LOW STRATUS INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH 06Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OF IFR TO LIFR IN MOST
GUIDANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06-09Z. AS NNW FLOW DEVELOPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK, GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS RAISING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. LATEST TAFS REFLECT
LOWERING CEILINGS BY 03Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS THEN EXPAND IFR TO
INLAND TERMINAL BY 09Z AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
ST. AUGUSTINE, WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET.
DENSE SEA FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY, NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY, AND THEN EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH CAUTION
LEVELS BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH
ELEVATED BREAKERS OF 3-5 FEET TO KEEP A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. A LOWER END MODERATE RISK WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERLY SWELL LINGERS AND BREAKERS
SUBSIDE TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE LOW VALUES PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY, SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS INTO OUR REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT
MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER SPEEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 47 65 33 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 70 53 65 38 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 75 53 69 37 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 73 56 71 41 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 77 53 69 35 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 78 54 72 38 / 20 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ452-470-472.
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