139
FXUS62 KJAX 191914
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
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AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z. DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SETTLE IN
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AT SGJ AND BY 03Z AT SSI. DENSE FOG WILL THEN
SPREAD INLAND TO CRG AND JAX TOWARDS 04Z AND VQQ BEFORE 06Z. A
SMALL WINDOW OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT GNV AS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS BANK OF DENSE FOG BRUSHES THE TERMINAL, CURRENTLY
FORECAST FROM AROUND 07Z THROUGH 10Z. THE FOG BANK AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETREAT EASTWARD DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 11Z AT GNV, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE
13Z. IMPROVEMENTS ELSEWHERE SHOULD OCCUR AROUND OR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 15Z. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT
5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER
SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING BELOW 5 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS TOWARDS NOON ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE (1030
MILLIBARS) BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
(1038 MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN THE WAKE
OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A SHARPENING TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LAST VESTIGES OF A BANK OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THAT PLAGUED MUCH OF OUR AREA EARLIER THIS
MORNING NOW ERODING ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER TO THE NORTH OF
JACKSONVILLE, WHILE A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AT THE NOON HOUR, WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE UPPER 70S WERE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. DEWPOINTS AT 17Z
RANGED FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID 60S
IN NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
AN ISOLATED, BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, LEFTOVER LOW STRATUS LINGERING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER
WILL ERODE COMPLETELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE.
THE REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. A LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WITH FOG THEN SPREADING INLAND ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS REACHING THE U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LATEST SHORT-TERM, HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS BANK OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TOWARDS SUNRISE AS OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING REINFORCING
FRONT. FAIR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S.-301
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHILE LOWS ELSEWHERE REMAIN
IN THE 50S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
ST. AUGUSTINE, WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET.
DENSE SEA FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THIS FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY, NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY, AND THEN EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SPEEDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH CAUTION
LEVELS BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A PERSISTENT EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH
ELEVATED BREAKERS OF 3-5 FEET TO KEEP A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. A LOWER END MODERATE RISK WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERLY SWELL LINGERS AND BREAKERS
SUBSIDE TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE LOW VALUES PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY, SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS INTO OUR REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT
MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER SPEEDS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 63 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 53 63 39 53 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 52 68 37 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 57 68 43 55 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 53 68 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 56 70 38 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-454-
472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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