505
FXUS62 KJAX 210512
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST ON TRACK AS SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS TO NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 5-10 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL OVER INLAND AREAS DESPITE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST HEADLINES.
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40F ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THESE COLDER TEMPS AND ELEVATED WIND FLOW
WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 25-30F
RANGE OVER INLAND AREAS AND 30-35F RANGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND REMAIN IN THE 10-15G20 MPH
RANGE AREA-WIDE UNDER SUNNY SKIES, BUT THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL
HOLD TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S INLAND. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING, BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WINDS STIRRING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
COLD, DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AND ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S, OR ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH CALM
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING PROMOTING CRASHING TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHT FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED. NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. THIS
SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM UP ON
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS WILL FALL TO JUST NEAR FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST LIKELY FOR INLAND SE GA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DEVELOPING A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO
MIDWEEK CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM EASTERLY ON
MONDAY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
ADVECTING WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW THROUGH DAYBREAK FOLLOWING A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH BRIEF GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NNE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS INLAND TO NEAR 10 KTS AT
THE COAST WITH COASTAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT TIMES. A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS MAY SKIRT NEAR CRG AND SGJ THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH BASES 3.5-4.5 KFT AGL AND INCLUDED FEW035
IN BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER NNE
WINDS NEAR 5-8 KTS AT THE COAST TO NEAR CALM INLAND TOWARD VQQ AND
GNV.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST, AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 41 53 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 56 37 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 42 62 49 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 57 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 34 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ021-
023-030-035-120-220-322-422-522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
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