317
FXUS62 KJAX 212340
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
640 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERNEATH WEST TO WNW FLOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE TN VALLEY
AROUND THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO SE ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NNE WINDS 5-10 MPH OVER OUR
AREA THROUGH SUNSET. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THANKS TO A COLD DRY
AIRMASS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT OUR
HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS WILL HANG JUST OFFSHORE MOST OF THE DAY WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS SHIFTING BRIEFLY ONSHORE AT TIMES MAINLY
OVER THE NE FL COAST.
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
INTO THE 40S AND THEN 30S BY MIDNIGHT OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT
WILL FAVOR A LIGHT FREEZE AND A WIDESPREAD FROST, WITH WINDS
ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS INLAND AND 5-10 MPH AT THE COAST. A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR SE GA
WEST OF I-95 AND AND THE SUWANEE VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO
30-32 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. A
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR LOWS 33-36 DEGREES FOR COASTAL
SE GA INCLUDING BRUNSWICK AND HIGHWAY 301 IN NE FL INCLUDING
GAINESVILLE AND LOCATIONS WEST OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SUCH
AS CECIL FIELD AND BALDWIN WHERE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER TO THE NE FL COAST WITH UPPER 30S ALONG US/17 FROM
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD AS NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR AS IT TRAVELS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US SUNDAY,
WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THIS INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY, READINGS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. AN ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE COAST WILL KEEP EASTERN COUNTIES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
INLAND SE GA WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST. THERE WILL
BE A WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW, WITH LOWS OVER INLAND SE GA IN THE LOWER 30S AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH HIGHS OVER INTERIOR SE GA IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AND HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS NE FL. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL COULD RISE TO AROUND 70. READINGS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
50S COASTAL NE FL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE TROUGH TO THE EAST
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY, WITH CHANCE
FOR COASTAL SHOWERS REMAINING. AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
JUST OFF THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS AREA, AND THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY, TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED FOR INLAND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHILE COASTAL SITES
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 15Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND
GUSTS 15-22 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS PERSISTING OFFSHORE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY. COASTAL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BRINGING PERIODS OF ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS,
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED SEAS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOCALIZED HIGH-END MODERATE RIP CURRENT FOR ST.
AUGUSTINE BEACHES SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH TODAY, WITH A MODERATE
RISK AT OTHER LOCAL BEACHES. RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO A
HIGH RISK SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SURF HEIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 40 53 45 60 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 37 57 44 63 / 0 0 10 30
SGJ 42 61 52 67 / 0 0 40 40
GNV 35 61 44 68 / 0 0 10 20
OCF 36 64 47 71 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-030-
035-120-220-322-422-522.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ024-031-136-
232-236-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
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