718
FXUS62 KJAX 240018
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
718 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CLEAR SKIES OVER SE GA WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS, WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS AT SNOW-COVERED AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO LOWER 20S ALONG INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF SE GA, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S. THIS WILL SETUP ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE GA AS SNOW MELT BEGINS TO REFREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER NE FL WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DIPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING,
BEGINNING TO REACH BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND
10P. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR NE FL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.
NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
ANOTHER SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH RESIDUAL SNOW SLOWLY MELTING ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF
SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN TONIGHT AGAIN WOULD BE WITH ANY SNOW
MELT IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REFREEZING LEADING TO PATCHY OR
STRETCHES OF BLACK ICE ALONG ROADWAYS IN SE GA ALONG AND NORTH OF US-
82. AN STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
LATER TODAY.
A LOW LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CRUISE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING, ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ARCTIC
DOME. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PASSING IMPULSE, A VERY
DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
BITTERLY, POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING, COLD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WILL POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE TEENS UNDER
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHILE INLAND NE FL AREAS AND COASTAL SE GA
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE BEACHES OF FLAGLER COUNTY AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD TEMPS, THERE WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS
THAT WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPS (WIND CHILLS) TO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TERRITORY. ALL THAT SAID, IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WITH HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
THOUGH CHANCES ARE MINIMAL (<20%), IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR, THERE COULD BE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES,FREEZING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
MIST BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY DESPITE
CLEARING SKIES AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE BITTERLY COLD YET AGAIN, WITH HARD FREEZES LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S, WITH THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN STAYING IN THE LOWER 30S. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT, HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S AREA-WIDE. WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
SLIGHT WARM UP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO 50S WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOWS YET AGAIN WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR THE SAME AREAS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE SUNDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER SE GA MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY, WITH MOST OF NE FL
FINALLY REACHING 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, AND BY TUESDAY SOME AREAS
IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SEE 70 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT BEING THE
FINAL NIGHT IN THE NEAR-FUTURE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS, WITH JUST
A LIGHT FREEZE OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA. THE REST OF THE
WEEK, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PICKING UP AGAIN AROUND 14Z.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EDGE OF AN INCOMING ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH,
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE INITIALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THROUGH THIS PERIOD FAIR
MARITIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SURF WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT NE FL BEACHES. SURF WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AND RISK WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MODERATE. MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES AND SE GA BEACHES.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
CLIMATE SITES ARE JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX), CRAIG AIRFIELD, FL (CRG),
ALMA, GA (AMG), AND GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV).
DATE | SITE | RECORD LOW MAX | RECORD LOW
------------------------------------------
1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011)
CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011)
AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011)
GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 19 45 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 28 47 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 23 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 31 51 32 54 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 24 51 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 28 53 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-
237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-
162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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