085
FXUS62 KJAX 241841
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
141 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES, THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS WARMED
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT READINGS, ARE NOW ALL
ABOVE FREEZING, RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A BREEZY NORTH WIND ON THE EDGE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S - STAY WARM!
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UNDER FULL SUN, REACHING THE 50S
ACROSS NE FL AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS SE GA. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
MORE SNOW MELT WHERE RESIDUAL SNOW OR ICE EXISTS IN PORTIONS OF
SE GA.
ASIDE FROM NUDGING TEMPERATURES UPWARD, NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
NECESSARY AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS TRACKING AS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. THE LOW TO THE EAST, WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, TAKING THE LINGERING CLOUDS
OVER NE FL WITH IT. A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT,
YIELDING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WITH FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT, BUT TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO
ISSUE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, THEN TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER AND DRIER WITH THIS
FEATURE, WHEREAS GFS IS SLOWER AND WOULD BRING SHOWER CHANCES LATE
IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY, BUT
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TREND
ABOVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING THEN CALM
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE TODAY, LOW SATURDAY
NE FL: HIGH TODAY, MODERATE SATURDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 43 22 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 47 31 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 51 27 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 51 32 54 41 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 51 26 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 54 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ472-474.
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