476
FXUS62 KJAX 251705
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
..SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THIS WEEKEND
..WIDESPREAD FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE AGAIN TONIGHT
..FINAL FROSTY MORNING ANTICIPATED WELL INLAND ON MONDAY
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1034 MILLIBARS) SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
ALOFT...FAST, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES, WITH THIS REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN FLAT RIDGING CENTERED
OVER MEXICO'S YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. OUR MORNING SOUNDING AT
JACKSONVILLE WAS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY, WITH A PWAT OF 0.17 INCHES,
WHICH WAS JUST ABOVE THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 0.15 INCHES, AND A
MAXIMUM WESTERLY WIND OF JUST UNDER 120 KNOTS WAS RECORDED AROUND
200 MILLIBARS (AROUND 40,000 FEET). THIS FAST FLOW WAS
TRANSPORTING JUST A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH
COLD AIR MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BEING CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL. TEMPERATURES AT NOON HAVE RISEN TO THE
50S AREA- WIDE, WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING THROUGH THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW LATE
JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR REGION.
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
SLIGHTLY THICKER CIRRUS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. A FINAL NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND LOWS AROUND
FREEZING EXPECTED EASTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
FL. WE WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNINGS FOR OUR MUCH OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT, AS LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS ALLOW FOR PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING BEFORE VALUES LEVEL OFF DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
TO THE NORTH. A WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US IN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA DUE TO THIS TROUGH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, THEN NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
A SERIES OF WEAK SOUTHEAST MOVING FRONTS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY, THEN TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY
PERIOD, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FRONTS TO THE NORTH, AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK DUE
TO INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BELOW
FRIDAY AS COLD ADVECTION PUSHES DOWN EAST COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS EARLY AT KVQQ, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT VFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
COME OFF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF STRATUS. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRATUS TO
BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. OTHERWISE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE GEORGIA WATERS BY TUESDAY. SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FEET WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FEET
NEAR SHORE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 2-3 FOOT SEAS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS
AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD.
RIP CURRENTS: A GRADUALLY FADING NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
KEEP A LOWER-END MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TRANSPORT SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. MEANWHILE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CREATE LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH POOR VALUES
EXTENDING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A DRY AIR MASS
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY, WHILE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FL, WITH POOR VALUES FORECAST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TRANSPORT SPEEDS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
LIGHTER SPEEDS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IN ANOTHER DAY OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 53 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 58 31 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 39 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 61 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 64 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...NONE.
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