264
FXUS62 KJAX 251917
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA TONIGHT. FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY THICKER CIRRUS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY COLD
AIR DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ONE FINAL NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE FREEZE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT, WITH AN EXPANSION OF
THIS FREEZE WARNING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND INLAND
NORTHEAST FL, WHERE WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING
ARE FORECAST. LOWS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
BUT CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET
TO THE MID 30S TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BEFORE HOLDING STEADY DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
BROAD AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH
AND PACKING MUCH OF A PUNCH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ONLY
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WITH JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AREA WIDE: MOST AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S
SUNDAY EXCEPT OVER FAR INTERIOR GA AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A BIT
STRONGER OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN CHANCES NORTH, THOUGH STILL WELL
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70 SOUTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR INTERIOR, BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING ANY
COLD WEATHER HAZARDS OVER THE SHORT TERM AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ESSENTIALLY FIZZLES ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT, LOOKING TO BE MAINLY A DRY
FRONT, PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE A PARTICULARLY STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH IT, BUT WILL CERTAINLY BRING A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND
QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS START THE LONG TERM GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FALLING TOWARDS CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS AT SGJ THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PREVAIL AT SSI.
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE SSI
AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
BY 14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. OTHERWISE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE GEORGIA WATERS BY TUESDAY. SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FEET WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FEET
NEAR SHORE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 2-3 FOOT SEAS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS
AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD.
RIP CURRENTS: A GRADUALLY FADING NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
KEEP A LOWER-END MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TRANSPORT SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. MEANWHILE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CREATE LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH POOR VALUES
EXTENDING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A DRY AIR MASS
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR REGION WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY, WHILE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FL, WITH POOR VALUES FORECAST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TRANSPORT SPEEDS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
LIGHTER SPEEDS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IN ANOTHER DAY OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 26 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 55 32 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 58 31 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 39 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 59 34 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 59 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425-522.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ033-038-124-
125-132-137-140-237-240-325-340.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...NONE.
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