116
FXUS62 KJAX 262329
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
629 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
AFTER A MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL,
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S, BENEATH INITIALLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET DYNAMICS PHASE
ALOFT OVERNIGHT, A MULTI-LAYERED AND THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL
DEVELOP. DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ONLY FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS NE FL AND TO THE UPPER 30S FOR
SE GA.
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PATCHY FROST FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WEST OF
I-95, IN SE GA LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES DIP A DEGREE
OR TWO UNDER THE FORECASTED LOWS. FURTHER SOUTH, THE MOISTENED AND
WARMER NIGHT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG (MIST) DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES FOR ARE LESS THAN 30%. THE ONE POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO
BOTH FROST AND LIGHT FOG, WILL BE THE THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS STATES WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, PUSHING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY PUSH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ON MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS
ON MONDAY, WHILE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AND A LINGERING
DRY AIR MASS ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WHERE LOWER 70S ARE
FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL REACH THE 60S
TOMORROW, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. AREAS
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE PACIFIC
ORIGINS, AND LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA, WITH UPPER 40S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
RANGING TO THE LOWER 50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OFFSETTING SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10, WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S,
WITH NEAR LATE JANUARY CLIMO HIGHS OF THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT THE LOWER 70S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS TO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL BY MIDWEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL GRADUALLY EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA, ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND A
LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL BOOST HIGHS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AT
INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY REACHING THE LOWER
70S. COLD SHELF WATERS AND AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COASTAL
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL
TO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CELL WILL BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING
FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH LOW TO MID 70S PREVAILING AND A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WITH LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OZARKS
ON FRIDAY, REACHING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE PUSHING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S,
WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE MAXES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS
RISE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ABOVE COLD SHELF WATERS. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ONLY FALL TO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES QUICKLY OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGHS SHOULD
AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND, WITH 80 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL. SEA FOG POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE SUPPORT ALOFT IN A LARGELY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL TO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS NEXT SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TRENDING TOWARD CALM
OVERNIGHT. NO CONCERNING CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF LIGHT FOG (MIST)
DEVELOPMENT AT INLAND TERMINALS (KVQQ + KGNV) TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL
INITIALLY BE BETWEEN 5-10 KFT BUT IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR
MONDAY NIGHT (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY). THERE IS LOW, BUT INCREASING
CHANCES, FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KSSI,
SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER AREA WATERS WILL BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL
MOVE INTO WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT DROPS APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH BEFORE THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
DROPS TO A LOW CHANCE ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHERE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
ARE FORECAST AT INLAND LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WILL YIELD LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THESE WINDS
BRIEFLY FILTERING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES
AT INLAND LOCATIONS WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 36 58 41 62 / 0 60 40 0
SSI 42 56 45 60 / 0 20 10 0
JAX 40 67 48 66 / 0 10 10 0
SGJ 46 66 52 65 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 41 70 50 69 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 43 71 50 71 / 0 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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