244
FXUS62 KJAX 271830
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
130 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SE GA WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING INTO THE 50S, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE
FL SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 70S FURTHER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF INLAND NE FL.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE GA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THROUGH NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST FROM OCALA TO PALM
COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
INLAND AREAS, BUT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME STIRRING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW AT
THIS POINT IN TIME, AND ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY GET
SCOURED OUT INTO A LOW OVERCAST STRATUS DECK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, SO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FT FOR MOST OF THE REGION DUE TO THE
MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT LIKELY
ONLY INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO THE LATER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS
JUST A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS,
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY,
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE WEAK NATURE OF BOTH THE FRONT AND
SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES NORTH OF ABOUT I-10 WILL
BE WARMER TUESDAY DUE TO MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER, AND TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF I-10 WILL BE SIMILAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A GREATER PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MAINLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S
AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY, THOUGH THE FLOW
QUICKLY CHANGES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW IS THEREFORE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY BEFORE VEERING
TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SAME FRONT.
TIMING AND MORE SPECIFICS TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS,
THOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, LOSING SOME OF THE MORE AMPLIFIED
DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE GETS TO OUR AREA. WITH THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO, INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER LIMITED AND THEREFORE INCLUDED
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH PRE
FRONTAL SHOWERS. A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS IN STORE FOR THIS
WEEKEND, FEATURING WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LONG TERM, WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME FRIDAY FEATURING THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH -SHRA STILL
ONGOING AT SSI, WHILE SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 4000
FEET ACROSS THE NE FL TAF SITES. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL ON TRACK TO BRING MVFR CIGS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME, THEN
LIKELY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG AT INLAND TAF
SITES UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS, THEN BACK TO MVFR IN THE
11-13Z TIME FRAME AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND LIFT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
13-16Z TIME FRAME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO 8-10
KNOTS WITH THE CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
BRIEF UPTICK IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND WILL LIKELY NEED A SCEC/SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY THEN LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER-
RUNNING THE MUCH COLDER OCEAN TEMPS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SEA FOG
ISSUES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. LONGER RANGE
MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS
GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 61 38 69 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 46 62 43 66 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 49 67 41 72 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 51 67 44 70 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 51 68 42 72 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 51 71 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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