752  
FXUS62 KJAX 280704  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
204 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE  
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...  
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. IN  
ADDITION IN WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE  
TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GULF INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE  
BUILDING HIGH WILL SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY  
SUNNY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER  
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT WILL  
STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE NORTH, WITH RIDGE BUILDING  
CLOSE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES. NOT EXPECTING IT BE COMPLETELY CLEAR AS A WEAK UPPER  
TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL KEEP UPPER CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOWS WILL BE  
SEASONAL.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER  
SOUTH TOWARD REGION, AS HIGH RETREATS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.  
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, SO A DRY DAY IS  
FORECAST. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND, BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE  
ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES  
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S FOR ALL BUT THE  
COASTAL AND INTERIOR SE GA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
 
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT TO THE OFF THE FL EAST  
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WELL TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
LOWS WED NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY, EVEN WARM CONDITIONS  
INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AS THE DEEP LAYER  
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, FOR THE COASTAL AREAS  
ON THURSDAY, SINCE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS  
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL ONSHORE FLOW  
FOR THE BEACHES, WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID  
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (GIVEN THAT NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS ARE IN  
THE 50S). FURTHERMORE, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM  
EARLY THURSDAY KEEPING THE SURFACE FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FROM ABOUT  
FERNANDINA BEACH NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING UP OVER  
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH  
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ALREADY SOUTHERLY. WINDS AT THE SFC  
WILL BE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT  
TO MOSTLY THE 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY FOR ALL AREAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. VERY WARM DAY COMPARED TO ALL THIS MONTH, WITH  
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
PROBABLY NOT REACHING RECORD HIGHS, BUT ALMA GA MAY BE THE CLOSEST  
TO A TIE WHERE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH STANDS AT 82 DEGREES. REST  
OF THE CLIMATE SITES RECORD HIGHS ARE 85-86 DEGREES SO PROBABLY  
OUT OF REACH. AREAS OF BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15-20  
MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTS OF ABOUT 30-35 MPH ARE  
VERY REASONABLE TO EXPECT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS  
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE TIMING  
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ALSO  
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FRIDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GA. VERY  
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VERY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC  
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE LIKELY UNDER 250 J/KG. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY, MODEL  
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL AND CLEARING  
SKIES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TX SLIDES  
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE  
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS  
TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
 
A BAND OF LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT AREA TAF SITES THIS NIGHT, AS A  
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY  
THE FRONT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY.  
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS MORNING.  
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE  
NORTH NORTHEAST THURSDAY, THEN TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SUNDAY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NE FL: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 62 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0  
SSI 61 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0  
JAX 67 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0  
SGJ 67 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0  
GNV 69 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0  
OCF 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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