995
FXUS62 KJAX 281247
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
747 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 741 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF NE FL EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A COOLER NW FLOW PUSHING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY ONLY RECOVER TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH AT TIMES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND MID/UPPER 40S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INLAND NE FL LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. IN
ADDITION IN WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GULF INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BUILDING HIGH WILL SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT WILL
STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
FOR TONIGHT, TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE NORTH, WITH RIDGE BUILDING
CLOSE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. NOT EXPECTING IT BE COMPLETELY CLEAR AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL KEEP UPPER CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONAL.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD REGION, AS HIGH RETREATS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, SO A DRY DAY IS
FORECAST. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND, BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S FOR ALL BUT THE
COASTAL AND INTERIOR SE GA.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT TO THE OFF THE FL EAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WELL TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS WED NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THURSDAY, EVEN WARM CONDITIONS
INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AS THE DEEP LAYER
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
ON THURSDAY, SINCE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL ONSHORE FLOW
FOR THE BEACHES, WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (GIVEN THAT NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 50S). FURTHERMORE, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM
EARLY THURSDAY KEEPING THE SURFACE FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FROM ABOUT
FERNANDINA BEACH NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING UP OVER
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ALREADY SOUTHERLY. WINDS AT THE SFC
WILL BE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
TO MOSTLY THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY FOR ALL AREAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. VERY WARM DAY COMPARED TO ALL THIS MONTH, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
PROBABLY NOT REACHING RECORD HIGHS, BUT ALMA GA MAY BE THE CLOSEST
TO A TIE WHERE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH STANDS AT 82 DEGREES. REST
OF THE CLIMATE SITES RECORD HIGHS ARE 85-86 DEGREES SO PROBABLY
OUT OF REACH. AREAS OF BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15-20
MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTS OF ABOUT 30-35 MPH ARE
VERY REASONABLE TO EXPECT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE TIMING
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND ALSO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FRIDAY AFTN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GA. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VERY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE LIKELY UNDER 250 J/KG. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BY SATURDAY, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL AND CLEARING
SKIES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TX SLIDES
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
BAND OF LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING,
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS MORNING.
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THURSDAY, THEN TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NE FL: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 67 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 67 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 69 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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