641
FXUS62 KJAX 292014
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
RAIN FREE, BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER DEFINES THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD THANKS TO A 592-593 DM RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ITS NW-SE AXIS BISECTING FL. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING EAST INTO THE
DESERT SW WHILE FORCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE ARK-LA-
TEX REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INITIALLY CLOSED LOW OPENING UP INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS A WARMING/MOISTENING TREND VIA LOW-LEVEL MARITIME EASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT, FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SPREADING NE WELL INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS ON THE TABLE, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES. FOG CHANCES APPEAR EVEN MORE
LIKELY/WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
ISOLATED LOW 50S NEAR ST JOHN'S RIVER AND THE BEACHES. THURSDAY'S
READINGS PEAK IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE VALUES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S - ANOMALOUSLY WARM BY AROUND A
DOZEN DEGREES OR MORE!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS COMPARATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE FROM JUST A
WEEK PRIOR WHEN SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTERIOR AREAS
COULD REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK, WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEAMPLIFYING WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WHILE APPROACHING SE GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. ISOLATED
THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST, BUT IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE FRONT IS ONLY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT
APPROACHES THE JAX METRO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA
COAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
DRIER, BUT THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT ESPECIALLY COOL, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A BIT LOWER. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AS WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AFTERNOON, THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS MUCH COOLER
THAN INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WHICH FOR THE MOST PART WILL FEATURE WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S, ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. RIDGING OVER CUBA AND EXTENDING UP THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE QUIET AND WARM
WEATHER.
BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA, BUT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL UPPER AIR
PATTERN, THIS SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN, DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
COOL AIR WITH IT, SO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING UNDER A MIX
OF UPPER CLOUDS WITH SOME FAIR-WX CU. LIGHT WEST WINDS TURN
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS TMRW
OUT OF THE NE TO EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS FOG,
FOR WHICH THE BEST POTENTIAL IS AT GNV, FOLLOWED BY VQQ. HAVE
INITIAL ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS FROM 9-10Z, THEN A TEMPO FOR 1-1/2SM
IN THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME. OTHER TERMINALS STAND A LESSER CHANCE,
THOUGH JAX/SGJ MAY SEE BRIEF DROPS TO ~4-5SM NEAR SUNRISE. ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT OR AFTER 14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
RIDGING OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, POSSIBLY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE IN SPEED INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES NEAR THE MARINE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GEORGIA...LOW
NE FLORIDA...LOW
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. MAINLY WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. FOR TODAY,
DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WHILE GOOD DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF
HIGH DISPERSION. SHOWERS MAKE A RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 71 53 80 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 48 59 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 47 70 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 50 67 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 48 76 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 49 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...IG3
SHORT/LONG/MARINE...GODSEY
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