694
FXUS62 KJAX 300036
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WILL LIFT ACROSS NE FL
TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER COASTAL SE GA BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. NOT AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT LOWER
40S ACROSS SE GA AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE FL. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN STORY
TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN SIMILAR AREAS AS LAST NIGHT
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL, AS DENSE SEA FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE BIG BEND AREA, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO INLAND NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH
AS FAR EAST AS THE US 301 CORRIDOR AND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE I-10
CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THAT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
RAIN FREE, BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER DEFINES THE NEAR-TERM
PERIOD THANKS TO A 592-593 DM RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ITS NW-SE AXIS BISECTING FL. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS ROTATING EAST INTO THE
DESERT SW WHILE FORCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE ARK-LA-
TEX REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INITIALLY CLOSED LOW OPENING UP INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS A WARMING/MOISTENING TREND VIA LOW-LEVEL MARITIME EASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT, FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SPREADING NE WELL INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS ON THE TABLE, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES. FOG CHANCES APPEAR EVEN MORE
LIKELY/WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
ISOLATED LOW 50S NEAR ST JOHN'S RIVER AND THE BEACHES. THURSDAY'S
READINGS PEAK IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE VALUES
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S - ANOMALOUSLY WARM BY AROUND A
DOZEN DEGREES OR MORE!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS COMPARATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE FROM JUST A
WEEK PRIOR WHEN SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTERIOR AREAS
COULD REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK, WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEAMPLIFYING WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WHILE APPROACHING SE GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. ISOLATED
THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST, BUT IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE FRONT IS ONLY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT
APPROACHES THE JAX METRO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA
COAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
DRIER, BUT THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT ESPECIALLY COOL, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A BIT LOWER. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AS WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AFTERNOON, THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS MUCH COOLER
THAN INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WHICH FOR THE MOST PART WILL FEATURE WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S, ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. RIDGING OVER CUBA AND EXTENDING UP THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE QUIET AND WARM
WEATHER.
BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE EJECTING FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA, BUT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL UPPER AIR
PATTERN, THIS SYSTEM BEING PACIFIC IN ORIGIN, DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
COOL AIR WITH IT, SO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
MOSTLY JUST VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE AT KJAX FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THAT SHOULD FADE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BIGGER IMPACT STARTS
LATER TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND NE FL
AND IMPACT GNV/VQQ WITH LIFR CONDS BY 09Z AND INTO JAX BY 10-11Z
TIME FRAME, LOWER CHANCES EXIST AT CRG/SGJ WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE, WHILE SSI SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR IN THE 13-15Z TIME
FRAME ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT
TAF SITES IN THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
RIDGING OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, POSSIBLY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE IN SPEED INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES NEAR THE MARINE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GEORGIA...LOW
NE FLORIDA...LOW
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. MAINLY WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. FOR TODAY,
DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WHILE GOOD DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF
HIGH DISPERSION. SHOWERS MAKE A RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 73 51 80 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 46 63 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 44 72 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 47 70 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 46 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 46 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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