637
FXUS62 KJAX 301115
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
615 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF THIS MORNING,
AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL AND INTERIOR SE GA. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SPREAD OF THE FOG MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE DENSEST
FOG SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
SLOW THE FOGS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS, A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM EAST TO WEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, BUT WILL RISE INTO THE 70S INLAND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE I75 CORRIDOR EXPECTED.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY REACHING
INLAND SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES
AND STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A LINE
OR BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE INITIALLY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD WHILE DEAMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS NOTED IN NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BEST FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY PATTERN
LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE BAND OF
SHOWERS LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST
FOR SOUTHEAST GA OF ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT, AND DECREASE WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW, INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE EVENING HOURS PART OF OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
ZONES WHERE SOME ELEVATED CAPE OF ABOUT 200-500 J/KG IS NOTED IN
THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDER CHANCES OF
ABOUT 10-12 PERCENT IN THAT AREA WITH UNDER 10 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST
FL.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN PRIOR FORECASTS
SO HOLDING BACK SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE PRETTY QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR ALL AREAS. THE AIRMASS IS NOT ESPECIALLY
COOL SO MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
SOME HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE COAST, AS SFC WINDS COME AROUND
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN HOURS BRINGING COOL SHELF
WATER AIR TO THE BEACHES.
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
STRATOCU CLOUDS POSSIBLY ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FL, AND MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS THERE. THE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND LOWER- MID 50S
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN LOW LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING
THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL WHILE
SOME BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS TRENDING TOWARD THE LOWER 80S INLAND AREAS, AND
COOLER 70S AT THE COASTAL AREAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START TRENDING TO 50S FOR ALL AREAS TUE-WED.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND, PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG EACH MORNING, WITH DETAILS ON COVERAGE TO BE SORTED OUT IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
FOG WILL KEEP LOWERED VISIBILITY, AND PATCHY LOW STRATUS AT MOST
AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID
MORNING, WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY, AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU JAN 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING, THEN NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY
NE FL: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 52 79 52 / 0 0 40 70
SSI 62 51 70 53 / 0 0 10 50
JAX 71 54 80 56 / 0 0 10 50
SGJ 67 55 78 57 / 0 0 10 30
GNV 76 55 80 58 / 0 0 10 30
OCF 78 56 80 59 / 0 0 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
030-031-035-120-132-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-
422-522.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ024-124-
225-425.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ134>136-
149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...NONE.
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