087
FXUS62 KJAX 051856
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING INLAND AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RATHER QUICKLY SPIKE UP IN THE MARCH SUN. THE TAIL
END OF THE LINE AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND IT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER AND SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 3 PM, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LOWER DEWPOINTS.
CLEARING WILL ALSO ALLOW AN UPTICK IN THE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT AREA
WIDE WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 TO 40+ MPH AT TIMES.
A SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A STEEPER DROP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A MODEST
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
THU & THU NIGHT...BREEZY AND COOLER THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS THU MORNING WILL RANGE IN THE
30S ACROSS SE GA TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NE FL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, WHICH IS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING, WINDS SUBSIDE AND SKIES CLEAR WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S
(ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). THU NIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL
WILL ALLOW FOR FROST ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE COAST.
FRI & FRI NIGHT...WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ESE OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. COULD HAVE SOME INLAND FOG AND LOW STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY SAT MORNING UNDER LIGHT SSW
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NEAR CLIMO VALUES
FRI INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. LOWS FRI NIGHT TREND IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO
NEAR 50 TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
SAT THROUGH MON...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SAT AS A WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE BATCHES OF RAINFALL INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS SAT NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRACKS ACROSS SE GA THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL IN THE 'WARM SECTOR' WHERE A MORE
LINEAR LINE OF POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THIS EVENT
WILL BE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN PRODUCER WITH FORECAST STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES SAT-SUN NIGHT GENERALLY OF 0.50-2.5 INCHES,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER END VALUES TRENDING NEAR 3-4 INCHES MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10. STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SUN NIGHT INTO MON TRAILING THE DEPARTING AS A COOLER,
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL SAT IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S THEN COOL INTO THE 60S MONDAY TRAILING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE 50S SAT NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID
40S MON NIGHT.
TUE & WED...ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFTS
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONALLY COOL
LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
RATHER DISORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE
CLEARING THE AREA AS OF 18Z TODAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A
RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS OF 30+ KTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL AIRFIELDS. SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND A TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL
BEACHES, IN ADDITION TO ROUGH SURF IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. RIP
CURRENT RISK DROPS TO MODERATE THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
STRONG WSW WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN A DEPARTING SQUALL LINE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
TRAILED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW WITH A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THU
MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AROUND 28%, GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MODERATE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL SUPPORTS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MARION, PUTNAM AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON.
A DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS FRIDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND
MODERATE TO HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
NOT BE GUSTY, THE COMBINATION OF THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL
DANGER AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 62 36 70 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 45 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 44 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 45 66 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 66 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 45 67 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-
031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-
236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ038-137-138-140-237-
240-340.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-133-138.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
474.
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