336
FXUS62 KJAX 060822
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MARION, PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES...
..GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE MORNING
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE BAND
OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL FL WATERS. BREEZY WINDS
REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER THE
BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ESE OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH DESPITE CLEAR SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING QUICKLY
ESE OFF THE GA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
45-50 DEGREE RANGE SHOULD ONLY FALL ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES BEFORE
SUNRISE.
TODAY, THE DEEP TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
SWING AWAY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH BROAD RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS
WILL SHIFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO
MS, AL, AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DRY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH BUT STAYING BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
AS THE STRONGEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE AWAY WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY WARM HIGHS TO
60-65 DEGREES, MAKING FOR A COOL DAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
EARLY IN THE EVENING TO 5-10 MPH AND THEN NEAR CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT
UNDER THE HIGH. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS SE
GA WEST OF I-95 AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH PATCHY FROST
IN THESE AREAS WHILE LOWS FALL TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST
AND ST JOHNS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND LITTLE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO, SENDING HIGH-GRADE MOISTURE [BY
CLIMO STANDARDS FOR EARLY MARCH] OUT OF THE GULF WITH A LIFTING
WARM FRONT. THIS MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY WILL PHASE WITH DYNAMIC
LIFT OFFERED BY AN INTENSIFYING ZONAL JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
SPREAD RAIN AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. DESPITE THE WARM FLOW, THE CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN
WILL LIMIT HEATING. CURRENT FORECAST DOES KEEP HIGHS IN MID/UPPER
70S THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS OVERSPREADS
THE AREA; IF FASTER IT COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK,
BROAD SURFACE LOW RIDES ALONG A STALLED FRONT. RAINFALL
PREDICTIONS ARE A BIT BROAD BRUSHED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM
FRONT POSITION BUT A BENEFICIAL HALF-INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS
REASONABLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS ITS QUICK PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK LOW
CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES TO 60-80% AND LIKELY BE THE
PERIOD WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENT.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. IF IT IS SLOWER, AS THE EPS HAS TRENDED,
WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2-DAY PERIOD (INCLUDING
SATURDAY) RANGES FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
1.5"+ ACROSS SE GA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD SPREAD
IN HOW MUCH RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, WITH THE REASONABLE "HIGH-END"
TWO-DAY TOTAL BEING ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THAT SAID, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 ON SUNDAY.
WHEN THE LOW DOES TRACK AWAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AT THE EARLIEST, AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. AFTER A DAY OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PUSH ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A THIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER GNV
AND SGJ OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH A BREEZIER WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 07-09Z AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER WINDS REMAINING AT SSI TO
THE NORTH 20 KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL DURING
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
WINDS ENHANCED BY DAYTIME MIXING 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER 20Z TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS, THEN AFTER SUNSET (00Z),
NORTHWEST WINDS RELAX TO 5-10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
STRONG SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH KEEP
GALE CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH LATE MORNING NEARSHORE AND MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE
WATERS WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO CAUTION CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY LINGER JUST EAST OF THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST CAUTION
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING LOW END MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS
IN THOSE DISTRICTS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WAS LITTLE RAINFALL AND
KBDI VALUES OF 400-600 ARE COMMON ACROSS MARION, SOUTHERN PUTNAM,
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. FOR ANY EXISTING FIRES OR NEW IGNITIONS,
ERRATIC BEHAVIOR MAY LEAD TO CONTROL DIFFICULTIES.
ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST FL, ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL YESTERDAY FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST GA AND THE RISK
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER.
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A GULF LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BENEFICIAL RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED
TODAY DUE THE STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUD COVER THICKENS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 36 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 42 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 64 38 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 63 42 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 64 37 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 65 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ038-
137-138-140-237-240-340.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ450-452-454.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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