385
FXUS62 KJAX 062342
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
642 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ABOVE 6 KNOTS BY
18Z/19Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH
BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW
40S ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND ATLANTIC COAST. INLAND FROST IS
EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA AND THE
I-10 CORRIDOR OF NE FL. THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IN GENERAL, BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD TEMPER THE EXTENT OF FROST
COVERAGE. GIVEN THAT SOME PLANTS ARE IN BLOOM, OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ENSURES MILD WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A MORE MOIST
PREVAILING FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST,
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM OUT OF THE
WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY AND THEN RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FROPA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND MILD WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY LINGER JUST EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO AT LEAST CAUTION LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY UNDER GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS,
THEN LOW RISK FRIDAY WITH WEAK WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL DUE TO CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS IN THOSE DISTRICTS.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST FL THIS
AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A GULF LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A BENEFICIAL RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED TODAY DUE THE STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUD COVER THICKENS THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 36 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 42 66 51 73 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 39 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 38 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 39 75 47 78 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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