963
FXUS62 KJAX 070523
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1223 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS AT VQQ, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
OVERNIGHT TAFS. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL
THEN DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, CREATING ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AFTER 17Z AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED TOWARDS OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION. FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS NEAR CALM WINDS DEVELOP, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ENSURES MILD WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A MORE MOIST
PREVAILING FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST,
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM OUT OF THE
WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY AND THEN RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FROPA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND MILD WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY LINGER JUST EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO AT LEAST CAUTION LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY UNDER GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS,
THEN LOW RISK FRIDAY WITH WEAK WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A GULF LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BENEFICIAL RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED
TODAY DUE THE STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUD COVER THICKENS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 49 75 57 / 0 10 30 90
SSI 64 51 73 56 / 0 10 20 70
JAX 72 47 77 59 / 0 10 20 70
SGJ 69 49 75 59 / 0 0 10 40
GNV 74 47 77 59 / 0 0 20 40
OCF 75 45 78 59 / 0 0 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
AM...NONE.
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