945
FXUS62 KJAX 071726
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
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A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SRN GA AND IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS (PWAT 0.39
INCHES OBSERVED) OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BY THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
TODAY IN THE 70S. THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE A FULL 12 DEG WARMER THAN 12Z
THU. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE EAST
COAST, LIMITING HIGHS AT THE BEACHES TO THE 60S.
OTHERWISE, THE TONIGHT AND MARINE FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1019
MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE (993 MILLIBARS)
WAS EMERGING FROM THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...DEEP AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS LOCALLY IN THE WAKE OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT WAS PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WHILE STOUT
RIDGING WAS LOCATED OVER MEXICO'S YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION CURRENTLY, WITH THIN CIRRUS
LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO LOOSEN, BUT A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND PREVAILS AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT INLAND LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL AS OF 08Z, WITH 40S
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NORTHEAST FL COAST. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHWARD FROM
NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF FL'S ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ACCELERATES EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING, THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.
MOSTLY HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INVADE OUR SKIES
TODAY FROM THE WEST, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, AND A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALLOWING INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE LOW AND
MID 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NEAR EARLY MARCH
CLIMATOLOGY. OUR LOOSENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SLOWLY INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL SHELF WATERS AND A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.
MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVERNIGHT AS FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ADVECT SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS AND THINNER CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE 45-50 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES THEN REMAINING STEADILY
OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS CLOUDINESS
BEGINS TO THICKEN.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A MORE MOIST PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN
FROM OUT OF THE WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODEST INSTABILITY OCCURS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROF ENCROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TICK
UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER NE FL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. WE WILL SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIONS OF THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP/TSTMS WE SEE AND HOW MUCH OF THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE
FEATURE TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
TEMPS NEAR 80 NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AND FIRST COAST BEACHES. ON SUNDAY
THERE IS MORE OF DISPARITY IN MAX TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHS NEAR 65
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO MID 80S OVER SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE INTO SE GA. BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S WAYCROSS NORTHWARD AND 53 TO 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
ON MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST GA AND
CAROLINA COAST, PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. A VERY
LARGE AND STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY INTO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z-06Z TONIGHT FOR THE TAFS, BUT A
CHANCE OF LOW RESTRICTIONS (MVFR) FOR GNV AND VQQ BY THE 08Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. BEST OVERALL CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FOR GNV AND A SMALL
CHANCES FOR IFR, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW FOR NOW. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND HAVE INDICATED VFR CIGS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
IMPINGING ON THE TAFS AT JAX AND GNV AFTER ABOUT 16Z BUT MOSTLY
LOOK TO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LCQ 15Z-18Z. REST OF TODAY, SFC WINDS
ARE SOUTHWEST UP TO 5-10 KT INLAND BECOMING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR
THE COASTAL TAFS, THEN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. PREVAILING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AFTER 13Z/14Z SAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY. WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT NIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON SUNDAY. SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS LIKELY KEEPING A LOW
RISK THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A GULF LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A BENEFICIAL RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY DUE
THE STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUD COVER THICKENS THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES OF
RAIN MARKEDLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE FL/GA
BORDER AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 77 57 65 / 10 20 90 80
SSI 51 75 56 67 / 10 20 70 90
JAX 48 79 59 74 / 10 20 70 90
SGJ 50 77 59 76 / 0 10 40 70
GNV 48 78 59 77 / 0 10 40 80
OCF 47 78 59 80 / 0 10 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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