667
FXUS62 KJAX 071936
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE BROAD SFC HIGH OVER SOUTH GA THIS MORNING IS NOW LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AT ABOUT 1019 MB. THIS IS NOW RESULTING IN THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH JUST A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S INLAND.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD TO INLAND NC TO
CENTRAL AL AND NORTHERN LA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE
INCREASED MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST,
WITH SOME ADVECTION LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER THE INLAND AREAS TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE ACROSS INLAND
NORTHEAST FL AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA, AND MAY NOSE INTO
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. THE SFC WINDS STIRRING A BIT AND THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND VEERED FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS NOT AS
COLD AS THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AREA, SLOWING PROGRESS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
GA BEFORE NEARLY STALLING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY, THOUGH EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY AS WE TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO REGAIN MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS THE COAST.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE FOUND FROM ABOUT THE
I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW ACCOMPANYING IT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ALSO INTRODUCE THE
THREAT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5)
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, AND THEREFORE THE MAIN
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS RISK WILL BE THE HEIGHT FALLS AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP,
WITH A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THIS "MARGINAL" OR HIGHER RISK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPCOMING UPDATES, AS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-10 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER AND THEREFORE DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOW
PRESSURE WAVE. THIS WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND PATH OF THE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, TIMING LOOKS POTENTIALLY
SLOW ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT TO TAP INTO MOST
DAYTIME BUOYANCY, WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALMOST RIGHT ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND KEEPING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE WARM
SECTOR, SOUTH OF THE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE A PRIMARY HAZARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
DESPITE THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRIER THAN NORMAL.
A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS PLACED THESE SAME AREAS IN A
"MARGINAL" (1/5) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN THE SETUP.
TEMPERATURE WISE, EXPECTING A MODEST GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE
TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW/POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S OVER INTERIOR GA TO LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH, UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S WILL BE COMMON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA AS THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
TREKKING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE THE FL PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST ALL MAJOR GUIDANCE. KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA THURSDAY GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR AVERAGE ON
MONDAY BEFORE RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z-06Z TONIGHT FOR THE TAFS, BUT A
CHANCE OF LOW RESTRICTIONS (MVFR) FOR GNV AND VQQ BY THE 08Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. BEST OVERALL CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FOR GNV AND A SMALL
CHANCES FOR IFR, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW FOR NOW.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST AND HAVE INDICATED VFR CIGS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE TAFS AT JAX AND GNV AFTER ABOUT 16Z BUT
MOSTLY LOOK TO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LCQ 15Z-18Z. REST OF TODAY,
SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST UP TO 5-10 KT INLAND BECOMING EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FOR THE COASTAL TAFS, THEN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AFTER 13Z/14Z SAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
LIGHT WINDS OVER AREA WATERS THIS AFTN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW TO ABOUT 15 KT
SUSTAINED FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. AS A FRONT NEARS THE REGION
SATURDAY, CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AND INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTN AND CERTAINLY BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT THAT NEARS THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. FRONT IS QUASI STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH
OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST BY ABOUT 12Z MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ON THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. INCREASED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIKELY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY AND CERTAIN ON MON NIGHT. GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BACK OFF TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK INTO
SAT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. A MODERATE RISK WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
FIRE SENSITIVE DAY, WITH VERY LOW RH CONTINUE TODAY INLAND AREAS
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM FEW UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S PERCENT
RANGE. FORTUNATELY, FUELS AND WINDS NOT SUPPORTIVE ANY RED FLAGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE MORE LIKELY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4-5 INCHES MAINLY AROUND THE
I-10 CORRIDOR, CLOSE TO WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRIEFLY STALLS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK TO BE CHALLENGED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AND SO THE ONLY RECORDS THAT MAY BE MET ARE THE DAILY PRECIP
AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD EXCEED 1 INCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN
ONE WOULD BE CRG WHICH SITS AT 1.01" (2022) ON MONDAY, BUT ALMA
WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 77 57 66 / 0 10 80 90
SSI 51 75 56 66 / 0 10 70 90
JAX 48 79 59 73 / 0 10 60 80
SGJ 49 77 59 76 / 0 10 30 70
GNV 48 78 59 77 / 0 10 30 70
OCF 47 78 59 81 / 0 10 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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