626
FXUS62 KJAX 081112
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
612 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
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AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE GNV TERMINAL. SHOWERS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
TOWARDS NOON, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3,000 FEET AT GNV
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS THEN FORECAST FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH AROUND
21Z. LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE SGJ TERMINAL TOWARDS 20Z,
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO APPROACHING THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 2,000 - 3,000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT THESE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OVER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME
AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE
PREVAIL AT SSI, WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 07Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS BY
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING, WITH SPEEDS SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY AT SSI DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) SHIFTING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, WHILE A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. LOW PRESSURE (1005 MILLIBARS) WAS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER WEST
TEXAS. ALOFT...STOUT RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, CREATING FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. OTHERWISE, A CUTOFF TROUGH WAS
SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WAS MIGRATING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WITHIN THIS FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY DECOUPLED, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 09Z MOSTLY IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 09Z,
WHILE A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE WAS KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE MID TO UPPER
40S PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
CUTOFF TROUGHING CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY,
WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING, DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG
BEND COAST LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS NOON. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, WITH BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND ALSO NORTH
CENTRAL FL, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING
WEST OF I-95, AS A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS LIKELY KEEPS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL DRY TODAY. THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BRIEFLY DECREASE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
ORGANIZES AND PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT, WHERE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID
AIR MASS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NATURE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S DUE TO
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM
THE WEST, ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY. A MID
LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT 5) CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO COVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF
GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING
3-4 INCHES OF RAIN. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER COVERING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GULF. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
CONCENTRATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF FILLS IN
BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF FILLS IN BEHIND THE PASSING LOW FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING FROM THE 40S INTO
THE 50S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY, WITH
THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT, REACHING
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS WHILE CROSSING OUR AREA.
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, FOLLOWED BY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ON TUESDAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM ACCELERATES EASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 6 TO 9
FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES THAT
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, MAINLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
PERSIST AND TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, CREATING A
POTENTIAL THREAT FOR URBAN FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALMA IN SOUTHEAST GA, AS
WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL,
EXCEPT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
ARE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK TO BE CHALLENGED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AND SO THE ONLY RECORDS THAT MAY BE MET ARE THE DAILY PRECIP
AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD EXCEED 1 INCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN
ONE WOULD BE CRG WHICH SITS AT 1.01" (2022) ON MONDAY, BUT ALMA
WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 57 66 51 / 10 80 90 90
SSI 76 56 66 54 / 0 70 90 90
JAX 78 59 73 57 / 10 60 80 90
SGJ 77 59 76 59 / 20 30 70 80
GNV 77 59 77 58 / 30 30 70 80
OCF 79 59 81 61 / 20 20 50 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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