736
FXUS62 KJAX 090625
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 09Z AT GNV, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. LIFR CEILINGS AROUND 300
FEET ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT GNV AFTER 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z, WITH CEILINGS THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARDS 08Z AT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 11Z
AT SGJ, WITH CEILINGS THEN LOWERING TO MVFR BY 12Z. CEILINGS WILL
THEN LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 08Z AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER 08Z WILL OVERSPREAD THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z, WITH
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z. PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AT SSI, AS NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GNV AND SGJ TERMINALS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 13Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST
16Z AT GNV. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT SGJ AFTER 14Z
WILL LOCK IN IFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 22Z, WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING, EXTENDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE AWAY FROM REGION THIS EVENING, PROVIDING A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS WARM FRONT. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SE GA, AND UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NE FL.
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA,
BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED 500 MB
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EAST TX TO LA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT
MOVES EAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME, A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 850 MB WILL BE INCREASING
FROM 15-25 KT TO ABOUT 20-30 KT ON SUNDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. INCREASING
LIFT EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SERVES AS A FOCUS MECHANICAL LIFT. CAM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST FL INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IS LOCATED.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD, BUT PERSISTENT RAINS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP BAND WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE DRIFTS
SOUTH. MUCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 200-600 J/KG, POTENTIALLY HIGHER,
SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STEEP BUT ARE ABOUT 6-7 C/KM, SO CERTAINLY ENOUGH IN THE PRESENCE
OF GOOD SHEAR VALUES FOR SOME HAIL THREAT. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT
A TORNADO NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WHICH
IS ROUGHLY FROM FL/GA STATE LINE SOUTHWARD.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY COME WITH A BIT MORE VIGOR AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW ABOUT 1009 MB
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND DEEPEN TO
ABOUT 1004 MB AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST GA COASTLINE BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE EVENING
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GA INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES. AREAS OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORESO FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, ALIGNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE SOME RISK
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30-40KT.
MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GA COAST WILL PUSH EAST- NORTHEAST
AND SWEEP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED
EARLY AND THEN MAINLY SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL IN
ON GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. GUSTS OF ABOUT 35-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR.
MONDAY NIGHT, COOLER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MAY BE STILL BREEZY AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF ON TUE WILL MOVE EAST AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED AND THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON THU. A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT PROVIDING FOR SOME INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS, BUT FOR NOW NO PRECIP IS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. INCREASED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED LATE THU AND
INTO FRI AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND THE SFC RIDGE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM
FROM THE 40S INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT, REACHING
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS WHILE CROSSING OUR AREA.
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT INCREASE OVER GA WATERS LATE SUNDAY AFTN AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS BEGINNING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ON TUESDAY AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM ACCELERATES EASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. SEAS WILL PEAK
IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH 4 TO 6
FOOT SEAS NEAR SHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL
YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES REST OF TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES
THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP EXPECTED. NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK TO BE CHALLENGED THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD TOUCH RECORDS MAINLY
FOR CRAIG AIRPORT IN JAX, WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RECORD AT ALMA
GA. THE REST OF THE CLIMATE SITES FOR PRECIP RECORDS LOOK OUT OF
RANGE TO TIE OR BREAK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 50 62 41 / 90 100 70 10
SSI 62 55 68 47 / 90 90 70 20
JAX 69 57 72 45 / 90 90 70 10
SGJ 73 60 73 48 / 60 70 70 10
GNV 78 60 70 46 / 60 80 60 0
OCF 82 63 71 47 / 40 70 60 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
033-120-124-125-132-133-220-225-232-322-325-422-425-522.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ149-162-163-165-166-
250-264-350-364.
AM...NONE.
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