516
FXUS62 KJAX 101252
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
852 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DISPERSED BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO JUST NORTH OF THE
FL/GA BORDER RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCAL 5 INCH
RAINFALL PER RADAR ESTIMATES AT 5 INCHES IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SO
FAR THIS MORNING. THE AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY, EXITING
OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE NE GULF AND PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THE NE FL AND
SE GA BORDER THIS MORNING, AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA
BY AFTERNOON. THE OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WILL PROGRESS
AND MARCH SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE LOW TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING WITH MOST CONVECTION
RESIDING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTE VEDRA TO GAINESVILLE AS ACTIVITY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF ANY PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE
MORNING, BUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL NORTH OF I-10 IN THE
AFTN WITH A POST- FRONTAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT OF ABOUT -18 TO -20C AND SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA. THIS SHOULD END
BY THE EARLY EVENING. COOL MAX TEMPS ARE SHOWN OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND 60, AND LOWER 70S TOWARD NORTHEAST FL BEFORE THE COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST FL DUE TO BETTER MIXING WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 25-30
MPH EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STARTING OUT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY REMAIN BUT GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS INLAND BUT REMAIN BREEZY
NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN FOR A TIME GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, CREATING SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE TUESDAY, WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA TO AROUND 10% THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN A LITTLE TOO
DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY PRODUCING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TAF SITES THRU MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY THRU 15Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG
AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 12-16 KT AND GUSTS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT DEVELOPING BETWEEN
15 TO 18Z. AFTER 18Z...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST CAN
BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DELAYED FOR KSSI AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FOR FL TAF SITES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR MID AFTERNOON THEN VFR TOWARDS 00Z AND
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-22KTS THEN
WINDS WILL TAPER DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING,
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNSET. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES TOWARDS BERMUDA
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY,
MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AS GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK
AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A LONGER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARRIVING
TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK BACK TO MODERATE.
RIP CURRENTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AS GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK
AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A LONGER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARRIVING
TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK BACK TO MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 41 73 44 / 60 10 0 0
SSI 72 48 71 50 / 80 20 0 0
JAX 76 46 76 46 / 80 10 0 0
SGJ 75 48 72 49 / 80 10 0 0
GNV 72 46 75 44 / 60 0 0 0
OCF 72 46 75 46 / 60 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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