229
FXUS62 KJAX 101807
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HEAVY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST FOR
THE DAY, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN FORMING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN PROGRESS INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BUILD IN TODAY INITIALLY FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF
THE WEST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESTABLISHING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER AND MID 70S FOR
MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA UNDER A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND
EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
BRING SEASONALLY COOL NIGHTS WITH INLAND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S
WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR 50. INLAND FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY, MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TUE NIGHT AND
THEN FARTHER EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
THU & FRI...CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THU
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS (<20%) ACROSS OUR WESTERN SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THU EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING, BUT
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
KEEPING THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY FRI NIGHT.
SAT & SUN...WARMER, BREEZY AND DRY SATURDAY AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHES, WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS WAS SHOWING A SLOWER SOLUTION,
WITH RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT OR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR MARGINALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH BULK
SHEAR 35-45 KTS ACROSS SE GA UNDER PHASING OVER MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -7 TO -8 DEGC ACROSS SE GA. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S SAT NIGHT.
MON...DRIER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL SHIFT A FRONTAL ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE FL EARLY MONDAY, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS
MON NIGHT IN THE 40S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
MORNING BOUTS OF STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
WHILE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SITES BY AROUND 21Z TO 00Z
AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND 05Z TO
07Z. BREEZY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BUILD FROM OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 00Z. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS TODAY WILL REACH UPWARDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS DROPPING TO
BE BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNSET. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ACCELERATES TOWARDS BERMUDA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MIGRATE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AS GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A
LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A LONGER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
ARRIVING TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK BACK TO
MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 74 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 48 72 50 72 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 45 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 49 73 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 45 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 47 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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