204
FXUS62 KJAX 110007
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
807 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE "BACKSIDE" OF AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW CURRENTLY DEEPENING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS ENHANCED THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MAINTAINED GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DESPITE THE COOLER,
STABLE AIR, AND THICK STRATUS THAT HAS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL LIKELY LINGER AN HOUR OR
TWO BEYOND MIDNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE WEST.
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SCOUR OUT MOISTURE, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO
THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. STIRRING WINDS WILL LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT BUT LOWS WILL PUSH INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AREAWIDE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN BANKS OF THE ST
JOHNS RIVER WHERE IT MAY ONLY TOUCH NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA UNDER A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND
EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL
LOCALES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
BRING SEASONALLY COOL NIGHTS WITH INLAND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S
WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR 50. INLAND FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY, MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TUE NIGHT AND
THEN FARTHER EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
THU & FRI...CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THU
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS (<20%) ACROSS OUR WESTERN SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THU EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING, BUT
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
KEEPING THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY FRI NIGHT.
SAT & SUN...WARMER, BREEZY AND DRY SATURDAY AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHES, WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS WAS SHOWING A SLOWER SOLUTION,
WITH RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT OR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR MARGINALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH BULK
SHEAR 35-45 KTS ACROSS SE GA UNDER PHASING OVER MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -7 TO -8 DEGC ACROSS SE GA. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S SAT NIGHT.
MON...DRIER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL SHIFT A FRONTAL ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE FL EARLY MONDAY, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS
MON NIGHT IN THE 40S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TIED TO A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LOW STRATUS,
MIXED WITH DRIZZLE, WILL OFFER CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR (1,200 -
2,000 FT) UNTIL SCATTERING OUT AROUND 04-06Z TONIGHT.
OCCASIONALLY, DROPS TO IFR MAY OCCUR THROUGH AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE
WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SUNNY,
VFR SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS SUNSET. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ACCELERATES TOWARDS BERMUDA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MIGRATE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AS GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A
LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A LONGER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
ARRIVING TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK BACK TO
MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 41 74 44 / 60 20 0 0
SSI 72 46 72 50 / 80 20 0 0
JAX 76 45 76 46 / 80 20 0 0
SGJ 75 49 73 49 / 80 20 0 0
GNV 72 45 76 44 / 60 20 0 0
OCF 72 47 76 46 / 60 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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