168
FXUS62 KJAX 111700
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SUNNY, WARMER AND DRY TODAY UNDER WNW WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. BREEZY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GUST 15-20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN AS THE
HIGH BUILDS FARTHER EAST THE WINDS WILL RELAX INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO HE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL EDGE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN TODAY AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR
MASS INTO OUR AREA. FULL SUNSHINE, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EARLY THIS MORNING TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH
THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SLOWLY INLAND TOWARDS I-95 TOWARDS
SUNSET. A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COASTAL HIGHS
CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REACHING THE FL PENINSULA
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ALLOWING
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 40S AT INLAND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT,
RANGING TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CLEAR SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY WARMER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, CREATING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION (10-20%), MAINLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY, PRODUCING A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SKY COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM
PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. SKY CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MOSTLY SUNNY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOUNCE
BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 4-8 KTS TODAY THEN WINDS DECOUPLE TO <
5 KTS THIS EVENING TO CALM INLAND. AFTER 08Z TONIGHT, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VISIBILITY CONTINUED BETWEEN 15-22% FOR VQQ
AND GNV. CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING 6SM BR AT THIS TIME AROUND
08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK, LIGHT WSW WINDS DEVELOP 5-8 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, PASSING NORTH OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, WITH GALE WARNINGS IN
EFFECT OFFSHORE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEAR SHORE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND WILL DIMINISH BACK TO CAUTION LEVELS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 6-9 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO CAUTION LEVELS OF 4-6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS OF 3-5 FEET NEAR SHORE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FEET BY THIS
EVENING.
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WILL BRIEFLY WEDGE
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO
ONSHORE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN STRENGTHEN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BEGINNING ON SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS TODAY
WILL RESULT IN A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES. A LONG
PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL THEN ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING THE THREAT TO A MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. THIS
SWELL WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, LIKELY RETURNING THE RISK TO LOW.
DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE
THREAT, FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS THAT WILL LIKELY CREATE A HIGH RISK AT AREA BEACHES DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
CONDITIONS DRY OUT TODAY, DROPPING MIN RH VALUES AT INLAND AREAS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE MIN RH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TODAY, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL SEE VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S TODAY AND TOMORROW. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY GOOD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PATCHY HIGH DISPERSION
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
MINOR FLOODING BEGINS LATER TODAY ALONG THE ST. MARYS RIVER NEAR
THE GAUGE AT MACCLENNY, WITH A CREST NOW EXPECTED TO REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STATUS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. WATER LEVELS ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A MINOR
FLOOD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RISES ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER
MAY RESULT IN BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA FE RIVER NEAR THE GAUGE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES BY LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
4.07 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS MEASURED AT THE JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS 24-HOUR TOTAL IS THE 8TH HIGHEST TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN AT JACKSONVILLE IN 1872. THIS
TOTAL IS ALSO THE THIRD HIGHEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE
JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE OBSERVATIONS WERE MOVED
TO THIS LOCATION IN 1971. A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD WAS ALSO SET AT
ALMA, GA DURING THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY (1.86 INCHES ON MARCH 10TH).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 50 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 45 80 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 48 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 45 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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