583
FXUS62 KJAX 111826
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, TRENDED TOWARD
THE NBM25 PERCENTILE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 40S
INLAND TO 50 ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER & LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST.
CONTINUED WITH INLAND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION COULD ENABLE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO FORM.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THURSDAY, AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE
INLAND. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S, EXCEPT MID
70S AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S,
BUT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST, AND
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN COUNTIES TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 INLAND, TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
THE REGION WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY, WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO A GUSTY FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST, TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S INLAND. SATURDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A DRY DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH, WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT MODEL TIMING PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST
AREA IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. THIS IS A
FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF
FRONT. WITH CURRENT TIMING, HIGHS SUNDAY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES COULD
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S, WHEREAS CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING, AND SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 4-8 KTS TODAY THEN WINDS DECOUPLE TO <
5 KTS THIS EVENING TO CALM INLAND. AFTER 08Z TONIGHT, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VISIBILITY CONTINUED BETWEEN 15-22% FOR VQQ
AND GNV. CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING 6SM BR AT THIS TIME AROUND
08Z. AFTER DAYBREAK, LIGHT WSW WINDS DEVELOP 5-8 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECEDED
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, THEN THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY, MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNEY IS FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE
FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 78 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 50 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 45 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 48 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 45 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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