632
FXUS62 KJAX 091713
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
113 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH
OF ST. AUGUSTINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
IT WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY, HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
THURSDAY, A BROAD SFC RIDGE WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED EARLY, BUT WILL BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENABLE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO REACH WELL INLAND TO ABOUT US HWY 301 IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER 80S WELL
INLAND, TO UPPER 70S INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND MID 70S COASTAL
AREAS. THE COASTAL TROUGH MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OF ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES MAINLY
SOUTH OF JAX BEACH.
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL HELP DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY INTO
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH LOCAL SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. DUE TO THE FASTER MOTION
OF THE COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. STILL,
THERE IS LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THE BEST
CHANCES (ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT) WILL BE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR A LINGERING SFC TROUGH THAT SHOULD
BE PUSHING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED.
FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VA/C AREA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS. FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR OF 50 KT AND MARGINALLY LOW
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME NARROW CAPE ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS AT ABOUT -15C SO AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OVERALL, WE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR RAIN CHANCES BUT THE MAX POP IS AT ABOUT
50-60 PERCENT. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
COOLER, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT REST
OF THE NIGHT LOWERING MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S, WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ENCOURAGING NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY,
AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND TO ABOUT 50 ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
BUILD INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MON NIGHT, MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN POPS AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME. BECOMING QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NNE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG TO AFFECT GNV BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SEAS STAYING AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE CURRENT RISK TODAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE, WITH A HIGH RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
THE MAIN HEADLINES ARE ABOUT THE HIGH DISPERSIONS BOTH TODAY AND
ON FRIDAY. LOW MIN RH IN THE 30S OVER SOME INLAND AREAS TODAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 78 55 75 / 0 0 20 40
SSI 60 74 59 78 / 10 20 10 50
JAX 55 78 58 80 / 0 20 0 60
SGJ 61 76 59 81 / 10 20 0 50
GNV 53 82 55 80 / 0 10 0 50
OCF 54 82 56 80 / 0 10 0 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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