213
FXUS62 KJAX 100052
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
852 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM JAX
SOUTHWARD THROUGH PALM COAST WITH A FEW PUSHING AS FAR INLAND AS
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS NE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50 WELL INLAND RANGING TO AROUND
60 CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE NE15G20-25 MPH RANGE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA DUE TO BEING IN BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE THE NNE FLOW, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE NNE FLOW,
A FEW MAY SHIFT ONSHORE MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
AROUND SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S INLAND TO THE LOW 60S
ALONG THE COAST. THE LOCAL GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
HIGH SHIFT FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY ADVECTED IN FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW 80S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FOR FRIDAY, AS A TROUGH ALOFT HELPS TO PUSH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
LOCATION, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST. PWAT VALUES
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20-30%
FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING SLIGHTLY (40-55%) IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG I-10. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH BELOW
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND LOW TO MID 70S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, STAYING SLIGHTLY
WARMER ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY TO
BE NEAR NORMAL, THEN ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY MIDWEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKE ITS WAY IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH SCT STRATO-CU CLOUDS PUSHING ONSHORE THAT
ARE BRIEFLY MVFR AROUND 2500 FT AT SGJ. GUSTY NE WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TAF SITES WILL FADE SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND SKC AT THE INLAND TAF SITES OF
VQQ/GNV WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE IN THE
08-12Z TIME FRAME. REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST ON THURSDAY HAS
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL AS HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
HOW MUCH OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES
AND FOR NOW ONLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SOME POTENTIAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT SGJ WITH MVFR AND HAVE ADDED VCSH TO COVER THIS
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2500 TO
4000 FT RANGE TO ROLL INTO THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE E-NE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO BREEZY
NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. COASTAL TROUGHING
WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST FL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND LIKELY HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 80 54 75 / 0 0 10 30
SSI 61 74 60 78 / 10 10 10 40
JAX 57 78 57 81 / 10 10 0 50
SGJ 61 76 59 81 / 30 30 0 50
GNV 53 82 54 81 / 0 10 10 50
OCF 54 83 55 81 / 0 10 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page