397
FXUS62 KJAX 101019
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
619 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CALMER WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 80 INLAND,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE MID 70S AS EASTERLY WINDS FILL IN
LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S INLAND AND LOW 60S NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY RELATED TO
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND WILL KEEP POPS
GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE, AND WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FAST MOVEMENT OF CELLS, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM GIVEN THE MLCAPE AROUND 400-800 J/KG,
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT, AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE A STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS PLACED CENTERED PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. UNDER CLEARING SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THIS PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S FOR NORTHEAST FL AND ABOUT 70-75 FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
CHILLY NIGHT FOR SAT NIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT NORTHWEST,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50/LOWER 50S COAST.
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FOR WEST ZONES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY REBOUND INTO
THE MID 70S FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND UPPER 70S MOSTLY FOR NORTHEAST
FL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MON NIGHT, STAYING
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL FURTHER WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. NOT AS COLD MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AGAIN. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS REACH
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN (AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS) IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. SILENT POPS WILL PROBABLY BE CARRIED AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON
WED BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IMPACTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD
CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD BY MID-MORNING, BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CALMED. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE NE FL AND SE GA
BEACHES TODAY, WITH THE RISK LOWERING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
MAIN HEADLINES ARE HIGH DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL TODAY,
AND THEN ON FRIDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES
TRENDING LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 56 75 48 / 0 10 30 0
SSI 75 60 78 54 / 20 10 40 0
JAX 77 58 81 52 / 20 0 50 10
SGJ 76 60 82 56 / 20 0 40 20
GNV 81 56 81 51 / 10 0 40 10
OCF 82 56 81 52 / 10 0 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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