838
FXUS62 KJAX 110614
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS AT VQQ. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, WITH STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 21Z - 02Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGH ENOUGH TO RETAIN PROB30 GROUPS AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT SSI,
AS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THIS TERMINAL. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL BY 05Z SATURDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KNOTS AFTER 13Z AND WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TOWARDS 18Z. FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS,
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL BY 05Z
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER INLAND NE FL COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE GA PROVIDING THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 50S, EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER OCCURRING OVER
AREAS EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH
UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH AS A TROUGH ALOFT HELPS TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL START OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING, MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 10-20% FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING
SLIGHTLY (20-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, SHIFTING OFF THE COAST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW
80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE PASSING
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH BELOW
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND LOW TO MID 70S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S, STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, CREATING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, COOLING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER AREA WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE NE FL AND SE GA
BEACHES TODAY, WITH THE RISK LOWERING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 48 71 44 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 78 54 72 53 / 20 30 0 0
JAX 82 52 75 48 / 50 60 0 0
SGJ 82 57 73 53 / 40 60 0 0
GNV 82 52 75 47 / 30 60 0 0
OCF 83 51 75 47 / 10 50 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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