253
FXUS62 KJAX 111830
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PANAMA CITY TO ST SIMONS ISLAND (AS OF 2
PM) WILL CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT SHIFTS INTO NE FL, IT WILL REACH A TONGUE OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF AND A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE, INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AMID
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REACH LEVELS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE DEEP AND PIVOTING UPPER
TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL BUOYANT AND FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL SET UP AN
ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL GROWTH WITHIN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, HAIL
ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE FAVORED HAZARDS WITH
CONVECTION AS IT BUILDS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND PROGRESSES
SOUTH. EVENTUALLY, CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS IN
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH,
THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 10 OR 11 PM THIS
EVENING.
DRY AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SKIES THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SE GA AND
LOW/MID 50S IN NE FL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
AND INITIALLY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE MILD BY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP INLAND, PREACHING PAST THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
AVERAGE AND THEN DIP SLIGHTLY MIDWEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM KTLH TO KSSI. THAT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO A
DESTABILIZING AIR AS IT MOVES INTO NE FL AND THIS SHOULD INITIATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 20-21Z. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z, WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT AIRFIELD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH
WEAKENING TRENDS THEREAFTER. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY RAIN
AND STORMS AS THEY PASS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG A
COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SATURDAY;
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IN OFFSHORE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST FL, AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
THE FUEL STATUS, MUCH OF THE AREA ISN'T LIKELY TO BE CRITICAL;
HOWEVER, LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY
ON MONDAY EVENING, WITH WATER LEVELS CRESTING JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY TUESDAY NEAR THE GAUGE AT CHARLOTTEVILLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 48 71 44 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 80 54 72 53 / 20 20 10 0
JAX 82 52 75 48 / 50 50 0 0
SGJ 83 55 73 53 / 30 50 0 0
GNV 82 51 75 47 / 30 60 0 0
OCF 82 51 75 47 / 10 40 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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