787
FXUS62 KJAX 120732
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
..SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY IN THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST
..WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1005 MILLIBARS)
SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 IN THE FL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALOFT...THE
BASE OF DEEP TROUGHING THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION WAS PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WAS ADVECTING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH FAIR
SKIES IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES AT 07Z FALLING THROUGH THE 50S
AREA- WIDE. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
AND OCMULGEE RIVERS TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TODAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE PARALLELS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS,
CREATING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT A FEW MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND
ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL COUNTER COOL
AIR ADVECTION, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE AT
MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT UPPER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS FORECAST AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE SETTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. WE HAVE TRENDED LOWS ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES BELOW MODEL BLENDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR MASS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STARTS TO SETTLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY AND VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC
FLOW. LIGHT FLOW AND HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOLER
THAN NORMAL NIGHT INLAND, WHERE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WILL BE EXPECTED. MILDER NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS -
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE SAME BROAD HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND THEREFORE MORE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH LINGERING DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY
SUNNY INTO MONDAY AS WELL WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS.
HOWEVER, THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE, POSSIBLY ALL THE
WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE PENDING EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENDS UP BEING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS CLOSER TO
NORMAL - MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OF TUESDAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CERTAINLY
LOOK LESS POTENT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES, WITH VERY
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A DRIER BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETTLES INTO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY, TEMPS TREND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LONG TERM - ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. DEVELOPING
ONSHORE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD SCATTERED MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES, BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 3,500 FEET. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY
16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AT THE SSI AND
SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z, WITH THESE ONSHORE WINDS THEN
SPREADING INLAND TO CRG AND JAX DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING IF VENTURING INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND
OFFSHORE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL AND DEVELOPING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOW AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL YIELD A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED INLAND THIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH WILL DROP RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. MIN RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OF PERCENT WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED INLAND
TODAY, WITH THESE VALUES DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY
ON MONDAY EVENING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 42 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 48 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 74 43 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 72 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 75 44 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 76 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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