413
FXUS62 KJAX 121732
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
132 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL (EASTERN MARION, PUTNAM, AND INLAND
FLAGLER), WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND
ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHER
DISPERSIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
70S, LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COUPLED WITH DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL, WITH UPPER 40S
OVER FIRST COAST BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE AREA. THESE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95, KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, CAUSING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES AIDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY,
BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH, IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DRY COOL AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
SOME AREAS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FRIDAY TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. ONSHORE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS SPREAD SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ONSHORE AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET OVER THE SSI, SGJ, CRG, AND JAX
TERMINALS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-13
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 16-19 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS
BY 20Z, WITH THESE ONSHORE WINDS THEN SPREADING INLAND TO CRG AND
JAX AFTER 21Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL AND DEVELOPING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOW AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL YIELD A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
...ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS THRU EARLY EVENING FOR EASTERN
MARION, PUTNAM AND INTERIOR FLAGLER COUNTIES...
..PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE TODAY
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND SUFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY. DRY
AIR HAS FILLED IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN
MINRH VALUES IN THE LOW 30S TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH
HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN CALM THROUGH SUNDAY AS CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA, CREATING POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AS WELL AS
LOWER MIN RH VALUES AROUND THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. CALM WINDS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO
MAKE ITS WAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY
ON MONDAY EVENING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 42 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 48 71 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 74 43 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 72 49 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 74 44 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 75 45 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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