234
FXUS62 KJAX 130518
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z AT VQQ.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AROUND 8,000 FEET OVER SSI AND THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY
16Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS, EXCEPT AT
SSI, WHERE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT
INLAND AFTER 17Z, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
AFTER SUNSET AS SPEEDS DIMINISH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THIS EVENING'S FORECAST UPDATE, MOSTLY
INNOCUOUS CHANGES. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO TEMPER LOWS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING HELPING TEMPS COLLAPSE
TOWARD THE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 40S. OTHERWISE, A SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING AND NIGHT WITH WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM. AWAY FROM THE
COAST, LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE AREAS NEAR THE
ATLANTIC WILL READ WARMER, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE AREA. THESE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95, KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, CAUSING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES AIDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY,
BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH, IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DRY COOL AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
SOME AREAS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FRIDAY TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL AND DEVELOPING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK LOW AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL YIELD A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER TONIGHT AND REMAIN CALM THROUGH SUNDAY
AS CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA, CREATING POOR TO
FAIR DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AS WELL AS LOWER MIN RH VALUES AROUND THE
25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. CALM WINDS SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MAKE ITS WAY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. PATCHY HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY
ON MONDAY EVENING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 50 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 79 49 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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