285
FXUS62 KJAX 131255
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
PUSH INLAND WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND SE GA, UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F INLAND
NE FL, WITH COOLER VALUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE (1022
MILLIBARS) EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SOUTHWARD
TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE (1006
MILLIBARS) WAS MEANDERING OFF OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
ALOFT...TROUGHING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND WAS TAKING
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT, WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN CREATING DEEP A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AS RIDGING BULGES
NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT WERE EXITING OUR COASTAL COUNTIES, AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OCCURRING AT INLAND LOCATIONS AS WINDS
DECOUPLE BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES AT 07Z RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO
THE UPPER 50S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE
PERSISTS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS ALOFT TO RISE AS
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DEEP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY, SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WHICH WILL
TIGHTEN OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST BEFORE NOON, WITH THIS SLIGHT WIND SURGE
TRANSITIONING DOWN THE NORTHEAST FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL SHOVE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INLAND DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SLIGHT WIND SURGE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE BOOSTING HIGHS TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH
IS NEAR MID-APRIL CLIMATOLOGY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN/WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL YIELD MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WHICH
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH (AROUND 10-15 MPH) TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE
PINNED JUST OFFSHORE. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PINNED SEA BREEZE,
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED AREA
WIDE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO INTRUDE FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING.
THAT SAID, A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NORMAL LOWS IN THE
50S AND ALSO SLOWLY CREEP UP SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP THROUGHOUT TUESDAY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. THE FRONT WILL OTHERWISE MAINLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS IT CROSSES SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND NORTHEAST FL DURING THE EVENING
AND FIRST PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FL DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST. DEW POINTS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND UPPER
SUPPORT IS RATHER LACKLUSTER, AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT
ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEAVING JUST A DRY,
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY, AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST AND AT THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
CONVECTION OR DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DROP, ACTING MORE SO LIKE A
"MOISTURE BOUNDARY" AS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, AS A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME STACKED ALOFT AS WELL BY LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS VERY SUBSIDENT PATTERN WILL NOT ONLY KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY BENIGN WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE LONG TERM, BUT ALSO TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF "COOL DOWN" TO NEAR NORMAL POST FROPA
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR/SKC WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
ONSHORE/E-NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-10 KNOTS AND LIKELY JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG
FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TODAY, WITH THIS FEATURE SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER OUR WATERS
TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
CREATING A SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGE ON MONDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON TUESDAY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REACHING CAUTION
LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WEDGES
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE BACK TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO CREATE A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. LOW SURF
HEIGHTS SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OF PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY. DISPERSIONS
WILL ALSO BE FAIR AT BEST DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW, WHICH WILL ALSO
INDUCE A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND BY THIS EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. CRESTS IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 47 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 57 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 77 50 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 53 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 79 47 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 81 48 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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