923
FXUS62 KJAX 131805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AND EVEN SOME NEAR 80F READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NE
FL. THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL REMAIN COOLER AS EAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH DEVELOP BEHIND AN INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 5 MPH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG POSSIBLE, BUT FOG CHANCES REMAIN
LESS THAN 10% DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH SOME BRIEFLY
LOWER VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE NEAR INLAND BODIES OF WATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH SW STEERING FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SW SURFACE WINDS TO 10-15G20 MPH AND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THIS WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER INLAND AREAS,
WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL GET TRAPPED CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND SHOULD ONLY PUSH INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL EASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BE
BELOW 10 MPH AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND STAYING
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
STARTING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS FOR
THIS EVENT ARE RATHER DRY AND LACK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN SOME WIND WITH PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 10%. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS IT
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND IN THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TEMPORARILY INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL IN, BUT WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO BE ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN MOISTURE
STARTS TO FILL BACK IN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT. DRY AIRMASS WILL NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN LOW CHANCES OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING, MOST LIKELY AT VQQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS, WHICH
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ON MONDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A LATE DAY SOUTHERLY WIND
SURGE ALONG THE COAST WITH SE-S SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST THAT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW TO REACH SCA LEVELS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AS THE WINDS
SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND GENERALLY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN HEADLINE
LEVELS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH A LATE
DAY SE TO S SEA BREEZE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGS CALM WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THESE LIGHT WINDS CREATE PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA. CRITICALLY LOW MINRH TODAY AND MONDAY WITH VALUES AT
25% OR LESS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND VALUES ONLY COMING UP
SLIGHTLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA MONDAY WITH VALUES OF
25-30%. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING DAYTIME DISPERSION UP
TO GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD INLAND. COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION VALUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY, BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MORNING
AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. MINRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL DROP QUICKLY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. EXPECT HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TUESDAY WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENT ARE BELOW 10%.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. CRESTS IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 47 85 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 50 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 53 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 47 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 48 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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