060
FXUS62 KJAX 140521
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
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AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT VQQ.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SUSTAINED AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS,
WILL PREVAIL AT THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH
THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING PINNED TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
THROUGH SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT SGJ
AND SOUTHERLY AT SSI BEFORE 19Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 01Z TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EVENING'S FORECAST UPDATE. A
CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AT
INLAND LOCATIONS TONIGHT BUT SHOULD TREND ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT'S LOWS. COASTAL AREAS (EAST OF I-95) WILL LOWER TO
THE LOW/MID 50S OVERNIGHT.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES BUILD BACK TO THE MID 80S AND KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE MAINLY PINNED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH IN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEACHES A BIT COOLER, CLOSER TO
80F.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL EASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO BE
BELOW 10 MPH AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND STAYING
SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
STARTING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS FOR
THIS EVENT ARE RATHER DRY AND LACK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN SOME WIND WITH PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 10%. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS IT
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND IN THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TEMPORARILY INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL IN, BUT WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO BE ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN MOISTURE
STARTS TO FILL BACK IN TO THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS, WHICH
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ON MONDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A LATE DAY SOUTHERLY WIND
SURGE ALONG THE COAST WITH SE-S SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST THAT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW TO REACH SCA LEVELS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AS THE WINDS
SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND GENERALLY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN HEADLINE
LEVELS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH A LATE
DAY SE TO S SEA BREEZE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGS CALM WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THESE LIGHT WINDS CREATE PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA. CRITICALLY LOW MINRH TODAY AND MONDAY WITH VALUES AT
25% OR LESS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND VALUES ONLY COMING UP
SLIGHTLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA MONDAY WITH VALUES OF
25-30%. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE MONDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING DAYTIME DISPERSION UP
TO GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD INLAND. COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION VALUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY, BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MORNING
AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. MINRH
VALUES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL DROP QUICKLY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. EXPECT HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TUESDAY WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENT ARE BELOW 10%.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. CRESTS IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 56 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 81 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 86 56 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 85 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 86 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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