004
FXUS62 KJAX 141053
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
653 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE, OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE (1001 MILLIBARS) WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...RIDGING WAS BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF INTO OUR AREA, DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS PIVOTING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS,
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WAS KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES
WARMER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 07Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S INLAND, WHILE COASTAL VALUES WERE CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 45-50 RANGE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND OUR REGION WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL PIN THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. FULL SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL BOOST HIGHS TO
ABOVE MID-APRIL CLIMATOLOGY INLAND, WHERE MID 80S ARE FORECAST AT
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FL.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA-WIDE. A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE MID 50S AT INLAND LOCATIONS,
RANGING TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY ENCROACH UPON INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND POSSIBLY THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY JUST NORTH OF SOUTHEAST GA COUNTIES
TUESDAY MORNING, AND RATHER QUICKLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST FL BY THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WIDE, AND COMBINED WITH
LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD AND/OR ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK SURFACE HEATING
HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FL COAST AND AREA FL WATERS. THOUGH
OVERALL, MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. THE LARGER "IMPACTS" WILL BE A BREEZY FLOW AHEAD AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
APPROACHING 90 IN SOME SPOTS, INCLUDING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL STAY PINNED OFFSHORE.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND BY
THE COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAIRLY LIGHT AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A
WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP, THOUGH LIKELY MAKING IT ONLY ABOUT AS
FAR INLAND AS ABOUT THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE
COMMON, WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 TOWARDS
MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT TO
CALM WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE INLAND AREAS ONE OF THE
LAST CHANCES FOR READINGS BELOW 50 DEGREES FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, AND GENERALLY LOW TO MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME,
RIDGING ALOFT ALSO MOVES OVERHEAD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM FORECAST GENERALLY
FAIR/DRY, BUT ALSO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DIRECTION TO MORE
ONSHORE BY LATE WEEK AND MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH
LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A VERY
WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10G15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT INLAND TAF SITES AND S TO SE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING AT SSI/SGJ IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TO 5-7 KNOTS INLAND BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 8-10 KNOTS AT SSI/SGJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO CAUTION LEVELS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
NEAR SHORE THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET BOTH NEAR SHORE AND
OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING BACK TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING ITS PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH CAUTION LEVEL WINDS SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE, WHILE 2-4 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL NEAR SHORE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN WEAKEN
OVER OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING FOR
WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY, WITH
THIS FEATURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO CREATE A
LOW END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. LOW SURF
HEIGHTS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A LOW RISK IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOWER
END MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP AND PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S OF PERCENT EXPECTED AREA-WIDE EXCEPT AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CRESTS
IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER LATE THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT CHARLOTTEVILLE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 56 81 47 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 78 59 85 55 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 85 56 87 52 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 82 60 87 58 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 84 55 85 54 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 85 56 83 56 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page