956
FXUS62 KJAX 141810
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW PUSHES MAX TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID 80S INLAND
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
SURFACE SW WINDS AT 10-15G20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE AT THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ONLY PUSHES INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT: CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SW FLOW ONLY DECREASES
INTO THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHICH SHOULD REDUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
CHANCES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AND GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY DRY,
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A HIGH BUILDS
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY, THEN NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN MORE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS AREA.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE MONDAY, AS HIGH MOVES MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR WITH SKC CONDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY
S-SW FLOW AT 8-10G15 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET FOR
INLAND TAF SITES THEN FADE, BUT SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THE COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN TOO ELEVATED
TONIGHT FOR ANY FOG FORMATION AS WELL. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
12-14 KNOTS IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS, FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND
A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA FLAGS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE REQUIRED BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL THE TRIGGER
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BUILD EAST OF THE WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10-15 KNOTS WITH
FURTHER INCREASES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE TODAY, BUT FLOW REMAINING BREEZY OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY WITH NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS AREA TUESDAY
..AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I10 WEDNESDAY
..RH LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CRESTS
IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER LATE THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT CHARLOTTEVILLE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 82 49 74 / 0 10 10 0
SSI 59 82 55 74 / 0 10 10 0
JAX 54 87 54 77 / 0 10 10 0
SGJ 57 87 58 74 / 0 10 20 0
GNV 53 85 54 79 / 0 10 20 0
OCF 53 85 57 80 / 0 0 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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