291
FXUS62 KJAX 150020
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
820 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.
STIRRING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT, WHILE CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO EXPAND THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S COLD
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY DRY,
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A HIGH BUILDS
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY, THEN NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN MORE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS AREA.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE MONDAY, AS HIGH MOVES MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY
SKC CONDITIONS. STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTION AT ANY TAF SITES IS UNLIKELY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3-4KFT WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
DRY AND STABLE LAYERS ALOFT, THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SHOWERS ARE
UNLIKELY (<10%). BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER APPEAR TO BE A
KSGJ/KGNV AFTER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR SHORTLY BEYOND IT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS, FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING AND
A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA FLAGS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE REQUIRED BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL THE TRIGGER
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BUILD EAST OF THE WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10-15 KNOTS WITH
FURTHER INCREASES POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE TODAY, BUT FLOW REMAINING BREEZY OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY WITH NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS AREA TUESDAY
..AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I10 WEDNESDAY
..RH LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
UPSTREAM RUNOFF HAS CREATED ROUTED FLOW DOWN THE OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVERS THAT WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT BAXLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND AT THE GAUGE NEAR CHARLOTTEVILLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CRESTS
IN MINOR FLOOD ARE EXPECTED ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER LATE THIS WEEK. WATER LEVELS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE NEAR THE GAUGE AT CHARLOTTEVILLE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 54 82 49 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 80 59 82 55 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 86 54 87 54 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 84 57 87 58 / 0 0 10 20
GNV 85 53 85 54 / 0 0 10 20
OCF 86 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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